| Coal is the most important energy resource in China and over the next30years, coal willstill dominate the production and consumption structure in energy market, the fluctuation of coalprice will has a significant impact on real economy and coal market. So study in-depth of Chinacoal price evolution will have a great theoretical and practical significance for grasping the trendof coal market, early establishment or adjustment policy of coal production and consumption.In this paper which based on a detailed summary of historical research, then use the pricedata of Qinhuangdao and analysis the evolution of coal price in China. The major research workand findings in this paper are as follow:(1)Based on define related coal price theoretical concepts, and then analyses the evolutionand new features of coal market in nearly30years. After2002, our coal market startedimplementation of market-oriented reform and coal price fluctuation clearly. So select structuralbreakpoint theory will enhance the interpretation capabilities of coal price.(2)Though Rec-MOSUM text find that the sequence of coal price present obviouslystructure breakpoints. Then using BP structural mean breakpoints theory find from2003has5breakpoints in the sequence, and describe the fluctuation trend in every stage. Last using MEdynamic estimated theory for breakpoints monitoring which has good test results, therebyprovide support for forecasting coal price and trend timely.(3)Event study analysis can be used for every breakpoint for validation, using more lowfrequency data and observing abnormal returns in the event window. The results prove thatdifferent events alternating constitute the new evolution process of coal market after2003;similar incident events will create similar effect and impact.The study of this paper will have a significant reference value for government, energyproducers and consumers grasping the law of coal market changes, forecasting coal prices, andset the production and consumption policy. |
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