The Decoupling Study Between Energy Consumption And Economic Growth In The Northern Jiangsu Area

The environment issue is increasingly outstanding in nowadays society,excessive energyconsumption lead to growing carbon emissions,it’s one of the important factors of environmentdegradation.This article took the Northern Jiangsu Area as the research object and studied thedecoupling relationship between its energy consumption and economic growth based on therelative data in2002-2011.Specifically,this article used OECD and Tapio decoupling model,LMDIdecomposition method,decoupling hard model and scenario analysis method to analyze thedecoupling state and the deep reason affecting decoupling state between them,predicted thedecoupling state in2012-2020and put forward relevant policy suggestions.First of all,This article analyzed the status of the energy consumption and economic growthin the Northern Jiangsu Area in2002-2011,compared it with the Central and Southern JiangsuArea and used the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the Environment Learning Curve to do thefitting analysis between them;secondly,this article used OECD and Tapio decoupling model toevaluate the decoupling state of the energy consumption and economic growth based on therelevant data in2002-2011,and compared it with the Central and Southern Jiangsu Area;then thisarticle used LMDI decomposition method to discuss the influence degree of the energystruture,energy consumption intensity,economic output and scale effect on the total energyconsumption change in the Northern Jiangsu Area and its five cities in2002-2005and2006-2012,and used the decoupling hard model to evaluate the decoupling hard state;at last,thisarticle used energy consumption prediction model based on the IPAT model and respectively setthe baseline,energy-saving and strengthening energy-saving scenario to predict the decouplingstate between energy consumption and economic growth in the Northern Jiangsu Area in2012-2020.The results show that the trend of the total energy consumption and GDP is rising on thewhole in the Northern Jiangsu Area in2012-2020,the fitting result of the Environmental KuznetsCurve is N shape and the Environment Learning Curve shows the energy consumption intensity isreducing with the growth of per capita GDP;the decoupling state of energy consumption andeconomic growth is not decoupling in the OECD decoupling model in the Northern Jiangsu Areain2003-2005,it is decoupling in2006-2011,and the decoupling state is negative growthdecoupling in the Tapio decoupling model in2003,2005and2011,it is decoupling in2004and2006-2010;in the energy consumption influence factors analysis,the energy struture,economicoutput and scale effect is positive contribution in the whole Northern Jiangsu Area and its fivecities in2002-2005and2006-2011,the energy consumption intensity effect is positive contributionin the whole Northern Jiangsu Area and its five cities in2002-2005,and except Lianyungang andSuqian city,it is negative contribution in the whole Northern Jiangsu Area and other three cities in2006-2011;the decoupling hard state is not doing any decoupling effort in the whole NorthernJiangsu Area and its five cities in2002-2005,and it is not doing any decoupling effort in Lianyungang and Suqian city,it is the weak decoupling hard in the whole Northern Jiangsu Areaand other three cities in2006-2011;in the prediction in2012-2020,the decoupling state of energyconsumption and economic growth will be growing link for a long time in the baseline scenario,itwill be weak decoupling in the energy-saving scenario and it will be strong decoupling in thestrengthening energy-saving scenario;at last,this article put forward relevant suggestions from theaspects of transforming the economic development mode,increasing the energy utilizationefficiency,improving the energy structure,strengthening the government functions,using financialmeans and promoting energy saving consciousness of the masses.