Study On Real Estate Early-warning Of Harbin City

As the real estate is a pillar industry of national economy, its abnormalfluctuations will give negative impacts to economic development. As a typicalsecond-tier city, the real estate market in Harbin has its own features. Although themarket started late and volatility has not happened, but there are still problems andchallenges that we must face with. Based on this case, establishing an early warningmodel on the market anomalies is very necessary. With the real estate market inHarbin as the study object, rough set theory as study line, grey model for forecastingand similarity calculation for evaluating, this paper develops a real estate earlywarning model.Based on the analysis of the real estate market in Harbin, this paper thinks thatthe market has a good development in general, but there are still some problemssuch as high prices compared to per capita income, serious housing vacancy, narrowfinancing channels and so on. Combined with these problems, this paper selected10early warning indicators from the healthy development of market, the coordinationof social economy and the balance between supply and demand.To attribute index weight, this paper use rough set and information entropy,which can be combined with important level results to determine the reasonablenessof weight. Predicting the future situation is the most important need to early warning,so a new gray model of self-adjusting metabolism data to predict early warningindicators is proposed. And the results are compared with traditional algorithm toverify the proposed model is more accurate. As to the future state of real estate, itcan be evaluated by finding similar history to find the most similar state.Based on data from1999to2013of real estate market in Harbin, we use theearly warning system built in this paper to obtain the market state in2014with thematlab software completing the calculation. The results shows there will be atendency to turn cold in2014. Finally, suggestions for the problems and cold stateare proposed to improve the situation.According to the analysis of key warning indicators, this paper can get that thereal estate market real estate investment and fixed asset investment ratio may be abreakthrough record low, real estate development loans will continue a downwardtrend in recent years and the vacant housing area ratio will continue to rise.