Research On The Probe Into Construction And Evaluation Model Of The Supply Chain Based On Fractal Theory

Traditional supply chains, including robust supply chain and flexible supply chain, due to the lack of quick-response mechanism besides weak capacity of self-transformation, they cannot meet the demand of modern enterprise, especialy in the era of global economic integration within the diversity of products and customers’ pursuit of personalized products. Therefore, we need to introduce a new type of Supply Chain management to support the competition of inter-enterprise supply chain under the environment of complexity and volatile.Fractal Supply Chain is a new type of supply chain organization, which is based on goal-driven principle that could devide supply chain into several fractal elements that could finish specific operation functions; with those characteristics of self-organization and self-improvement, FSC could make a sound compatible of those advantages of Stable Supply Chain and Flexible Supply Chain. FSC has a strong ability of adaptability and resilience of the changing of market by the quick-response mechanism and reconstruction mechanism to market.Although those obvious advantages of FSC have been generally accepted, the study on FSC is still in its infancy, and an effective application based on FSC is not formed yet.Structure model and function model of FSC is established in this paper, by the studying and reference of SCPR (Reference model of supply chain Performance metrics) and SCOR (Reference modelof supply chain operations). This thesis divide fractal elements based on geography, based on product and based on business type, and at last, we finally establish a FSC Model based on business type.We focus on two aspects in the process of FSC evaluation system building:(1) The selection of FSC evaluation indicators;(2) The application of FSC evaluation methods.Firstly, we identify basic principles of indicator selection, including goal-driven principle, business-process priority principle, overall principle, real-time principle, and so on. We establish a detailed, comprehensive evaluation index system based on those principles. We also creatively use multivariate statistical methods, such as principal component analysis and factor analysis, to analyze collected index data. By those analyses, we streamline those existing indexes, and find out some bottlenecks that affect the overall efficiency of FSC so that we could get a clear direction that could used to develop improvements. Secondly, we establish a FSC evaluation index system by the using of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) theory, then, we also creatively use Efficacy Coefficient Method (ECM) to eliminate those human subjective factors in the process of weight deciding of index system. At last, we establish a FSC evaluation system based on AHP-ECM model. After the establishment of AHP-ECM evaluation model, we also used ARIMA algorithm building a time-sequence prediction, in order to optimize the order-stock sector of FSC, whose result shows that AHP-ECM model is an efficient and productive model for fractal supply chain evaluation system.