Financial Warning Analysis Of Chemical Industry Listed Company In Our Country

For agricultural chemical industry and other industrial production to provide the basis ofabundant materials, support the development of industries. In the past two years, the chemicalindustry strong impact from the macroeconomic environment. Many enterprise losses andface with financial crisis. From2012-2013, there are10listed companies are special treatmentin the chemical industry. Facing with complicated external environment, the enterprise canthrough improving management to deal with the potential financial crisis. There needs to bean effective tool for the enterprise to identify potential problems early. Financial earlywarning model is an effective tool.The purpose of this paper is to build a suitable for the current market environment ofchemical industry in our country the financial early warning model of listed companies, topredict chemical enterprise whether there is a potential financial crisis.First, this paper reviews the domestic and foreign research related to financial earlywarning model. Secondly, the financial crisis and the financial early warning are analyzed intheory. Analyzing the financial condition of the chemical industry at present, China’s chemicalindustry in terms of profit ability, debt paying ability is weak, it will be the focus to buildfinancial early warning model.Third, this paper chose8special treatment listed companies of the chemical industry in2012and2013and32listed company which net profit is positive for the first three years assamples. Selecting28financial indicators from the profit ability, debt paying ability, operationability and growth ability, through the test of significance and factor analysis of indexscreening, finally get16indicators, using logistic regression model to build financial earlywarning model, the model can be used to accurately predict the sample data.Fourth, using the financial early warning model in H company in nearly three years offinancial data, found that H company face financial crisis affected by the macro environment.H company forecasts market situation errors to expanded petrochemical production, led to adecline in the profitability of the enterprises. And points out that enterprises should properlychanging product structure through market downturn, and strengthen the management of costcontrol and financial risk. Finally, I draw the conclusion of this paper.