Research On Risk Identification And Evaluation Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project On Line S

With the development of economy and the need of city construction,urban rail transit becomes the most popular way to travel,in recent years,urban rail transit fixed investment to complete the forehead has been in a rising trend,and in the case of tightening government debt,issued by The General Office of the State Council on further strengthening the construction of urban rail transit planning management of the opinions,put forward to control the debt risk of local government,strict controls of new local government debt risk,strengthen safety in production and operations management,intensify prevention dissolve the debt risk of local government work.PPP project model can effectively solve the problem of capital and efficiency in urban rail transit.However,the application of this mode is still in the early stage in China.The PPP project of urban rail transit is facing many risks due to its long construction cycle and numerous participants.Scholars at home and abroad of urban rail transit the PPP project risk management research is less,and most of the recognition and evaluation method is relatively single,only from the risk factors of the effect,and less research on mutual influence between risk factors,in this context,this paper studies the core question is: in the project preparation stage,construction of urban rail transit the PPP project risk identification and evaluation framework.Based on the whole life cycle theory and the theory of overall risk management,this paper studies how to identify and evaluate the whole life cycle risk effectively and accurately.Taking line S as a typical case,line S is still in the preparation stage.First,literature research method is used to sort out the literature related to urban rail transit,PPP project and risk management,and find the deficiencies in the existing literature.Then,risk identification was carried out,and 25 risk factors were sorted out according to six categories of administrative and legal risks,economic risks,ecological risks,construction risks,operational risks and cooperation risks from macro,medium and micro perspectives.Risk assessment was carried out on the identified factors from the two aspects of the importance of risk indicators and the interaction between risks.Finally,risk prevention and control Suggestions and risk monitoring measures were put forward for the key risk factors of line S.In order to better manage risks,relevant supporting measures were proposed.Through the research of this paper,the following conclusions are drawn: first,line S is confronted with great medium and micro risks,and there are great risks in profit model,organizational management,timely arrival of funds,interest rate,geological environment,construction safety and other aspects.Secondly,risk response measures are put forward.Risk control measures include risk sharing,avoidance,reduction and retention,etc.Different measures are taken for the important risks evaluated above.In addition,according to the risk management theory,risk monitoring is also carried out to form a dynamic cycle of risk management process.Third,in order to better realize the risk management of the project,relevant supporting measures should be taken: establish a reasonable risk sharing mechanism,improve the legal mechanism related to PPP,build a talent team,improve the risk management awareness,and establish an independent third-party supervision system.Based on the reality,this paper is expected to provide some reference for the risk management of PPP project of urban rail transit.