The Research Of Real Estate Credit Risk Of Commercial Bank In China

In recent years, the credit risk have tended to increase and the potential loss have taken shape in the commercial banks.The real estate credit have the relatively high proportion in credit business of commercial banks.Therefore,enhancing the study of real estate credit risk management of commercial banks and improving the ability to withstand risk and the level of risk management of commercial banks has important practical significance to promote the healthy and rapid development of China’s commercial banks.The real estate credit risk of commercial banks as the main target to conduct systematic study in the full paper. The full paper is divided into six parts.The fist part,the paper introduces the significance and the selected topic background, the research status at home and abroad, the main content, methods and technology roadmap;The second part,the paper introduces the related to the basic theory of real estate credit risk of commercial bank, including the concept,type and characteristics of real estate credit risk of commercial banks,and analyzes the development status of real estate credit of commercial banks and the main risk of real estate credit of commerical banks.The third part, the paper introduces the measure of real estate credit risk of commercial banks,the paper through analysis and compare each method to identify the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the applicable of each method,the paper select the Logistic model for the research of real estate credit risk management of commercial banks in China.The fourth part,the paper use 146 listed real estate companies’ financial data and non-financial data in 2012 and 2013 for samples and the “net cash flow from operating activities is greater than zero or not” for the grouping standard to build Logistic model for the evaluation of real estate credit risk of commercial banks in China,using SPSS 21.0 to assess the validate of the model,the output results show that the model has good discrimination ability,it helps commercial banks to make the right judgments,assess and respond decisions based on the probability of default of the real estate business.The fifth part,the papercombineds the main risk of commercial banks and empirical results to put forward the recommendations for strengthening the management of of real estate credit risk of commercial banks.the sixth part is the main conclusions of the paper and future.