The Analysis Of U.S. Trade Remedies Against China

In recent years, due to the world economic recession, many countries implement traderemedies frequently to protect their domestic markets, which has become a fusee of trade friction.Among the countries that launch China trade remedy investigations, the United States took themost investigations and the amount of money involved was also the most. Why does Americalaunch trade remedy investigations against China so frequently? And what effects does it have onSino-U.S. trade? In this paper, we take the anti-dumping, countervailing and safeguard measuresthree major trade remedies as the research hitting point, mainly done the following work:1. In order to find the characteristics and trends of the U.S. trade remedies against China, Imade a statistical analysis of the cases numbers and the industries involved. From the view of thetrade remedy forms, anti-dumping is the main form taken by the U.S., while anti-dumping andcountervailing merger investigation has become a new trend. From the view of the industriesinvolved, that have comparative advantage in our country are much more easily to be investigated,while the high-tech products are suffering more and more trade barriers in recent years.2. I explored the determinants of the U.S. trade remedies against China by constructing anegative binomial regression model. The empirical results indicate: the decline of GDP growth rate,the increase of unemployment rate, the rising share of trade deficit in GDP, the rising of realexchange rate and the change of political situation will increase the trade remedy investigations.Among the above factors, the share of trade deficit in GDP is the key determinant.3. I examined the impact of the U.S. trade remedies against China on Sino-U.S. trade byconstructing a five-dimensional SVAR model. The results show that:(1) The trade remedies against China taken by the U.S. has trade destruction effect, which willreduce our exports to America and weaken our export products’ competitiveness; At the same timeit will lower our export market concentration in America, which leads to trade diversion effect.These effects are notable in the early period and fade away after5-6years.(2) The trade remedies against China taken by the U.S. has a positive impact on FDI, whichpromotes China’s direct investment in the United States. But this effect is not revealed in thecurrent period, indicating that there exists a hysteresis effect in the response, and the effect alsolasts longer relatively.4. At last I referred to a relevant case “the U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing merger investigation against citric acid industry of Shandong province" By comparing the export amount, export prices and export markets before and after the investigation, we further demonstrates the effect of the trade remedies against China.