Study On Enterprises’ Adoption Decision Model Base On Real Option

Technology innovation diffusion model is an essential component of the methodology of technology innovation diffusion system. It analyzes the diffusion process quantitatively with mathematical methods, which deepens and develops the qualitative analysis of innovation diffusion. Technology innovation diffusion involves many dynamic and uncertain factors, which make the diffusion full of random characteristics. However, the studies on the model of technology innovation diffusion home and abroad are mostly based on the certain hypothesis, which cannot reflect the nature of technology innovation diffusion comprehensively and correctly. Thus, the paper studies the model of technology innovation diffusion in the uncertain environment from a microscopic perspective and builds the model of individual decision-making. The concrete studies are as follows:On the basis of reading abundant of literatures at home and abroad, the paper analyzes not only the random characteristics of technology innovation diffusion and the features of real options, but also analyzes the characteristics of the benefits and costs of two common diffusion means, namely imitation innovation and introducing innovation, and then builds the models of decision-making relatively.According to the characteristics of earnings and costs in imitation innovation diffusion, assuming the earnings follow the geometric Brownian motion and the costs are fixed, the decision-making model of imitation innovation is built with the method of real option in consecutive time, and the parameters in the model are analyzed. The results indicate that interest rates, adoption costs, fixed benefits and volatility have a negative impact on technology innovation diffusion while expected earnings rate has a positive impact.According to the characteristics of earnings and costs in introducing innovation diffusion, two different models are built with different costs:①when a certain proportion to the earnings is paid as costs every year, assuming the benefits follow the geometric Brownian motion and the costs is a linear function following certain proportion to the earnings, the relative decision-making model is built;②when costs vary and decisions are made according to the earnings and the number of adopters each year, assuming both the earnings and the costs follow the geometric Brownian motion, the relative decision-making model is built. Then, the impact of each parameter on technology innovation diffusion and its economic implications are analyzed, and the results indicate:the ratio of earnings to costs is the key influencing factor to technology innovation diffusion; the more the adopters, the faster the technology innovation diffusion; when the royalty is small, it has a positive impact on technology innovation diffusion, otherwise it will hinder the diffusion.