Study On Assessment And Prevention For Risk Of Dairy Farming Based On Raw Milk Quality And Safety

In recent years, the dairy-farming industry has developed faster and faster, and it shows prominent energy among agricultural economics and tremendous growth prospects. Dairy farming is the key to the development of the dairy industry, and it plays an important role in making China’s dairy industry develop healthily, continuously and stably. At present, China’s dairy industry is at a critical period from the traditional to the modern dairy time, updating from the quantity-oriented to the quality-oriented. Now, issues about dairy quality and safety, as a highlight constraint to development of the industry, have an important influence on the healthy, continuous, and stable development of China’s dairy industry. The frequent dairy quality and safety problems are related closely to links of raw milk production, transport, dairy processing, quality inspection and supervision. The quality and safety of raw milk have an effect on the quality and safety of dairy products fundamentally, and dairy farmers are key players on the industry chain. So the stability and security of dairy farmers’ behaviors are essential for healthy run of the dairy chain. The stability and security of dairy farmers’ behaviors depends mainly on the stability of the dairy farmers’ farming income which also depends on the quality and safety of raw milk, at the same time, factors of dairy farmers behaviors and farming environment affected the quality and safety of raw milk importantly. Therefore, in order to protect the quality and safety of raw milk, ensure the quality and safety of dairy products fundamentally, and promote dairy industry healthy, sustainable and stable, it’s necessary to analyze the dairy farmers’ behaviors.In this paper, combined with the survey data and information obtained by the Milk Base Research Group, from perspective of raw milk quality and safety, the underlying losses for dairy farmers caused by farmers’ behaviors and farming environment during farming process, which is also called the farming risk, including price risk, disease risk and management risk are analyzed. Based on Risk Management Theory, Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment Theory, according to the scientific, systematic, dynamic principles, methods called VaR and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation are applied to assess the dairy farming risk. Raw milk price risk is assessed through VaR method, and the assessment results show that the probability of the raw milk price’s floating ratio between-31.34%and22.54%is95%, so there is a higher risk. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method is applied to assess disease risk and management risk, the results of the assessment shows that the degree of disease risk and management risk are both medium, but when these two risk both function, the comprehensive risk degree is higher. According to the results of the risk assessment, risk control mechanism is constructed and suggestions for risk prevention and control of dairy farming are proposed.The study results show that dairy farmers’ behaviors affect the quality and safety of raw milk directly and have potential effect on the dairy farmers’ farming income. Also, fluctuations in market prices also make dairy farmers potential loss, the greater the volatility, the higher the potential risks. The results also reflect that probability of underlying losses for dairy farmers during farming process is very high, which means high farming risk. Therefore, it’s of great significance to construct dairy farming risk control mechanism, propose suggestions for risk prevention and control from the subjects of government, enterprises, dairy farmers. And these measures will make sense in the protection of raw milk quality and safety, ensuring farming income of dairy farmers, and promoting dairy industry healthy, sustainable and stable development.