Biological Pharmaceutical Enterprise Finance Early Warning Research Based On Survival Analysis

Financial crisis warning has always been an important research topicin the financial sector, and the establishment of the financial crisis early warningmechanism is the most important link to avoid the financial crisis.According to theanalysis of relevant research at home and abroad,we will find that previous research isbased on universal applicability, however, with the continuous development ofeconomy, the differences between industry are more and more obvious,therefore,establishing corresponding prediction mechanisms for various sectors hasbeen a hot spot in the financial crisis prediction research.In2013, the State Council issued the latest "biological industry developmentplanning", which pointed out that by2020the biology industry as a pillar industry ofnational economy, which means that the biological pharmaceutical industry ushered inthe golden age of its development. Biopharmaceutical industry as a new sunriseindustry, has the characteristics of high technical content, multi-disciplinarycomprehensive, but its products in the process of research, development, productionand sales, is facing all kinds of complicated risk, if not in time to prevent, it is likelyto trigger a financial crisis, or even bankruptcy.So, choosing the reasonable analysismethods of financial crisis, effectively preventing and controlling the financial crisis,is a major concern in biopharmaceutical industry.First of all, in this paper,summarizing the financial crisis warning model at homeand abroad, and comparing with survival analysis, proves that the survival analysishas applicability in research of enterprise financial early warning;Then, in view of thespecial nature of the bio-pharmaceutical industry and according to its financial status,we analyzed its characteristics and types of financial crisis, and draw lessons from therelevant research achievement of experts and scholars to establish financial crisiswarning index system suited to Chinese biopharmaceutical industry,which includingfive aspects: ability to obtain cash, ability to pay debt, ability of sustainabledevelopment, financial flexibility and corporate governance.And And the indexsystem is based on cash flow and fully embodied the characteristics of biologicalpharmaceutical enterprises as the main body, the traditional financial indicators assubsidiary index of financial early-warning index system; Finally the survival analysismethod is introduced into the financial crisis in the study, using the actual data ofbiological pharmaceutical enterprises in China, respectively established the financialcrisis early warning model of biological pharmaceutical enterprise a year ago, the firsttwo years, three years before.This article will have widen the application of survival analysis model in thefield of economy,which is widely used in medical statistics and medical clinical, andthe effect of survival analysis model prediction is better, and it provides a new train of thought for the diversification of financial early warning research of biologicalpharmaceutical industry.