Factor Analysis Of Industrial Electricity In Sichuan Province

In recent years, the economic development situation in Sichuan Province is very good, so the electricity demand has a rapid growth. But as the power has a very short of the storage period, and the impact causes of electricity demand is complex, the electricity power often has the shortages and the surplus, resulting in a waste of electrical energy, even cause great economic losses, therefore, the problem such as economic issues of power has gradually attracted people’s attention. As usual, Industrial electricity demand forecast refers to using the certain scientific theories and methods, make scientific estimate and project for industrial power demand. As we know, Industrial electricity demand forecasts predict belongs to the electricity market, according to this idea, Industrial electricity demand forecast has the following characteristics:First, the industry electricity demand forecasting has a long-term characteristics, on the one hand, related to the construction of electricity due to the long period of time, in most time, cases requires high capital, on the other hand, use the economic indicators for industrial electricity demand to forecast, taking into the process of macroeconomic indicators’ data’ sources and the produce of industrial output has a certain time lag, so the electricity demand forecast has a long-term; Second, the forecast of industrial electricity demand is complexity. As we know, industrial is a very large areas, for example, the most important part of industry is steel and mechanical, but the impact causes of their electricity demand are different, it relates to the different chain structure of respective industry, also, in different areas, the policies in different countries and government have different effects on electricity demand. So we know, the whole industrial is a very large and complex systems, there will be a lot of internal factors and external factors have the effect on the entire industrial power demand, in this case, it is very difficulty to predict the industry power needs of each industry accurately; Third, industrial electricity demand forecasts have the characteristics of macro, on the one hand, this paper intends to research whether the electricity demand and macroeconomic have something connected, and which kind of correlation of them if there is, the question which is mainly focused on the national large macroscopic field; Secondly, the power industry, which itself is part of the macro areas, has a very wide range of applications in other macro areas, so that the electricity demand forecasting industrial process, must focus on the big macro range.Research on the relationship between economic development and industrial electricity demand about the question of expecting the electricity consumption with quantitative analysis, on the one hand, it not only can provide a reference to power sector and the company’s production, on the other hand, industrial electricity demand forecasting, is useful and effective to guard against the risk of electricity markets, there is a strong economic benefits, meanwhile, make the resources of the whole society to promote more rational allocation, has a very important social benefits. Currently, between power and economic, there are a lot of studies, but few studies research the electricity needs and economic development, and Rarely, for the research of industrial economic development needs and the industrial power demands in Sichuan Province.Yet this paper uses the co-integration theory to research on long-term equilibrium relationships between industrial electricity demand and the macroeconomic development in Sichuan province. First, this paper first studying on nowadays’ industrial electricity demand and current economic development in Sichuan Province, and then, find the problems of macro-economic development and power industry in Sichuan Province, at last, has a prospect in both variable in future trends. This article focuses on the study of industrial electricity demand and economic development in Sichuan Province, to explore the relationship between the two major studies from the following three aspects:First, has a depth of excavation of the influencing factors in industrial electricity demand in Sichuan, according to the numerous factors, use the model testing which indicators are useful and have the largest impact on the industrial electricity demand and industrial economics, so, select the gross industrial production as an important explanatory variable in this article, in addition, taking into account the2008earthquake has greater effects on the industrial economy and economic power, this article introduced this as a dummy variable to the model, to find if there has effect on Sichuan province’s development after this earthquake; Secondly, according to the factors in this article, namely industrial electricity demand in Sichuan Province and the economic value of industrial production in Sichuan Province, the paper conducted a descriptive statistical analysis in currently industry economics and industrial electricity demand development, based on the analysis results, we can find there is a gradually increased in electric Power industry sales and the economic production nearly12years trends, and in2008, the growth rate has shown a more substantial decline, which have a significant reference in the later model during the analysis phase of this paper; Last, use Co-integration, Granger causality analysis and Error Correction Models, we have a system analyzes in the relationship between the power industrial development and macroeconomic development. Through the Co-integration, we discovered the existence of stable long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity demand and economic growth in Sichuan Province; Granger causality analysis shows the current economy of industrial development may well promote rapid in industrial electricity to have a stable development, Error Correction Model is added to the co-integration model.With large amounts of data to descript the true state of Sichuan Province, the industrial electricity demand achieves complementary and mutually reinforcing through the theory and practice; Taking a combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, take quantitative as research-based, adding qualitative research to ensure the accuracy of the study; Taking a combination of static analysis and dynamic analysis, take the dynamic analysis as mainly, through interval data, tables and drawings, and logical analysis, adding in some special static analysis point, ensuring comprehensive analysis; Multi-disciplinary approach to macroeconomics and microeconomics theory as a guide, using the principle of Econometrics and the related knowledge of Statistics on industrial electricity demand in Sichuan Province to study.In the course of this paper, the problem of electricity demand in Sichuan Province in the study, with a certain degree of innovation in the following three aspects:First, the relatively new research, the current research in this area focused on the total domestic demand for electricity research, but this kind of empirical research on industrial electricity consumption between economic development and industrial relations are very few; Secondly, in this paper, added a dummy variable in the models, so that the model contains economic factors have a stronger productivity.By calculating the above two empirical analysis and model can draw the following conclusions:First, there is a long-term co-integration relationship between industrial electricity consumption and industrial economic development in Sichuan Province, the rapid development of industrial economy can promote industrial electricity consumption increase; Second, after the2008earthquake in Sichuan Province, the industrial economic development and the development of industrial electricity demand have a certain extent leap, indicating the introduction of dummy variables to analyze the relationship between the province’s industrial economy and electricity demand in Sichuan Province is feasible.According to the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, we put forward from two aspects of industrial economic development and industrial electricity demand to give recommendations, in electricity demand, power companies and departments need to strengthen the management of electricity use, strengthen the side management, encourage enterprises have scientific and technological innovation of electricity; in the aspect of the development of industrial economy, to encourage industrial enterprises including electric power department to strengthen the fixed asset investment, to ensure the export products to other smoothly, improve the supply and transport capacity, and to solve the resource conservation, environmental protection problem etc.As the limited academic level, literature, technology and time constraints, the paper also present the following deficiencies, pending the further study:First, the data used in this paper is the annual electricity demand and industrial Sichuan Province, Sichuan Province, the industrial output value; Secondly, the factors of industrial electricity demand have been excavated a lot, but can be used to model is less, at last, we choose the dummy variable and the gross industrial production in Sichuan Province.