Research On Logistics Demand Forecase Of Hebei In Regional Economy

The logistics industry is the basic industry of the national economy, and it is animportant symbol of national development level and comprehensive strength. With theaccelerating of economic globalization, regional integration, and the progress of ITtechnology, the logistics, which is called ‘the third profit source’, becomes more andmore important. This paper predicts the regional logistics demand in Hebei through clearintrinsic connection between the economic and logistics development, also provides thefoundation of logistics system construction for enterprises and the regional logisticsplanning for government departments. This paper has important theoretical significanceand practical application value, as it not only breaks through the limitation of predictionwith just the history of logistics data but also overcomes the shortcomings of logisticsdemand forecast to linear model with its own specific policy recommendations.Firstly, it not only shows the research and existing problems both in China andabroad in the view of logistics demand, but also introduces concepts on regional logisticsdemand. This is the theoretical basis for the following research theory.Secondly, it is based on Logistic model to analysis of the relationship between thelogistics development and economic growth in Hebei province through marginal effectand elasticity coefficient.Thirdly, it takes from the point of the relationship between the logistics developmentand economic growth to analyze the influence factors of logistics demand forecasting andestablishing the demand forecast index system. On this basis, support vector regressionand GM(1,1) model for logistics demanding forecast will be used in Hebei.Finally, forecasting logistics demand in Hebei province is based on data from1990-2012. According to the forecast results and the local economic development, thepaper put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.