The Analysis Of Economic Factors Affecting GDP Growth

This paper collects the relevant data about GDP and the total energy consumption,employment, the Household Consumption Level, the gross output of agriculture, thetotal retail sales of consumer goods in China nearly30years from1978to2010on thebasis of China Statistical Yearbook, which are used for quantitative research. This essayuses some mathematical statistics methods such as correlation analysis, regressionanalysis and combination forecasting when doing quantitative research. And there aresome conclusions after data analysis with SPSS16.0and EVIEWS6.0.The influence of gross output of agriculture to GDP is not significant, concludedby using linear regression analysis. There is a collinearity relationship betweenHousehold Consumption Level and gross output of agriculture, diagnosed bycollinearity of various factors. There is not only significant double causal but alsolong-term relationship between Household Consumption Level and gross output ofagriculture by using cointegration method. The relationship between HouseholdConsumption Level and GDP is not significant double causal, but has a cointegrationrelationship. The relationship between gross output of agriculture and GDP has nocointegration relationship, but has a double causality.This essay fits the Household Consumption Level and gross output of agriculturewith VEC model on the basis of analysis of the Granger and Johansen tests. It is foundthat there is a negative correlationship between the Household Consumption Level andgross output of agriculture from the cointegration equation of the model. The fittingresults are inspected, illustrating the validity of the model.It can be explained that the growth of Chinese GDP is closed related to the totalenergy consumption and the Household Consumption Level through the above a seriesof statistical test. Among them, the influence of the Household Consumption Level onthe growth of Chinese GDP is the most significant. So it can be seen that the mainfactors affecting the growth of Chinese GDP are the Household Consumption Level andthe total energy consumption.