Research On The Risk Identification And Risk Assessment Of The IT Project In Manufacturing Enterprise

Manufacturing industry takes an important role to economic potentiality andinternational competitiveness of China. Recently, manufacturing enterprises in Chinaface many new challenges, such as the vigorous international competitionenvironment, the diversity of customer demand, the fast updating speed of productsand so on. In facing these challenges, using the advanced information technologymeans and enhancing the informatization capacity is an important way for enterpriseswho want to be more competitive in the global environment. Almost all large ormid-scale manufacturing enterprises in China have already carried out a great amountof IT programs at present, but unfortunately the success rate is low in practice. Thegreat risks exist in the process of IT projects. The aim of researching on riskidentification and risk assessment during the process of IT projects in manufacturingenterprises is to guide the risk management of enterprise informatization projects, andimprove the success rate in informatization construction.Identifying exactly the key risk impact factors of IT projects in manufacturingenterprises, and evaluating accurately the level of project risks the project risks arethe core issues of this paper. Basing on the research results, we can identify thepotential risk situations as early as possible, make reasonable risk strategies, and takeeffective measures to deal with risk. So the risk losses can be effectively reduced andbudget targets of the IT program can be realized successfully.Firstly, from the different stages of IT projects in manufacturing enterprises, thispaper identifies thirty risk impact factors on the basis of a lot of published officialdocuments and papers. In order to reduce the relevance of risk factors and determinethe key risk indicators, this paper uses the principal component analysis method toreduce the dimensionality and finally acquire six key risk indicators.Secondly, based on analysis of fuzzy theory and artificial neural network, Ifound that fuse these theories with appropriate form can effectively play theiradvantages and compensate their deficiencies. So in this paper, according to therequirements of the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy neural network, an assessment model of IT project risks in manufacturing enterprises is constructed. At the same time, based onBP algorithm this paper proposed a universal learning algorithm of fuzzy neuralnetwork to improve the update processing of learning rate and parameter, whichcombines least squares estimation method (LSCE) and gradient algorithm.At last, According to the actual situation of IT project risk assessment inmanufacturing enterprises, this paper uses MATLAB simulation to establish theTakagi-Sugeno fuzzy neural network model. By using large sample datum to train andtest the network, a risk evaluation model which is of good generalization andastringency finally forms. And then this model is applied to analyze the risk situationof L machinery manufacturing enterprise ERP project. This paper puts forward somecountermeasures based on its risk characters.