Measure The Potential Scale Of Rural Surplus Labor And Transferable Scale Factors Research

The report suggested that the18th National Congress of Communist Party of China is to solve "three agriculture" problem as the top priority of the party work. And one of the effective ways to solve the problem of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" is successfully realize the transfer of rural surplus labor force employment. However, What the number of China’s rural surplus labor? What is the scale can be transferred? What factors affect their employment? This article is from this idea to start writing.Different scholars have different estimates about the number of China’s rural surplus labor. Different estimations result about rural labor force from no surplus to another300million. In this paper, on the basis of the existing research methods, uses three methods respectively to measure the potential scale of the rural surplus labor. The first is the average wage per capita income of farmers and migrant workers expected phase equilibrium; The second is from the angle of food security, by ensuring area of1.8billion mu of arable land and measuring a certain land output of agricultural labor force, and it is concluded that the potential scale of the rural surplus labor; The third is to measure the potential scale of the rural surplus labor force under the existing efficient agricultural production. By using different methods to estimate the number of rural surplus labor force, The result is different, but no matter use which kinds of method to estimate, suggests that our country at present and even in the future have a surplus of rural labor force of the need to transfer.However, whether the potential scale can be transferred is affected by various factors, such as, their characteristics, living environment and national policy. The paper combine with the personal micro level and social macro level:The micro level include personal and family characteristics, personal factors include personal gender, marital status, education level, age, health, training experience, access to work, social relations. Family factors include family population, the number of children, the children under the age of14, the number of people over age65; The macro level include rural index, the income gap between urban and rural areas, the market index. The paper applies the questionnaire micro data and related macro data for building model, uses empirical model to analysis the influence factors of rural surplus labor transfer employment.By establishing the model, the paper uses empirical ways to analysis the influence factors of rural surplus labor transfer employment, to show us actual transferable size will be less than potential scale. Finally, the paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions for the transfer of rural surplus labor force from two angles of government and farmers.