A Study On The Credit Risk Of Listed Real Estate Company Based On The KMV Model And Clustering Analysis

As is known to all that the prices of real estate continued to rise in the 70 large cities in the past 2013, however, more and more urban house prices have begun to fall since some reports about the price of real estate in Hangzhou beginning to slash in the early 2014. And we know that the real estate industry is a highly leveraged industry, what’s more, this year the state government did not introduce severe control policies in real estate market, therefore, we can’t help paying more attention to the credit risk situation of real estate enterprises. Accordingly, the paper attempts to study the credit risk situation of the listed real estate companies.At first, the paper discusses the related theory about general credit risk. And then, after analysis of four popular credit risk measurement model, the KMV model is selected to do an empirical test of credit risk in real estate market. Taking into account the development of Internet finance, this paper add it into the determination of the free-risk parameter. In the sample selection, the paper manages to get the sample by the ways of cluster analysis, which is relatively independent and objective, to increase the reliability of the results. After the author’s calculations, the author draw a conclusion that the credit risk situation of Chinese listed real estate companies has improved in the year of 2013 compared to 2012, what’s more, that the possibility of default of the outstanding performance companies is much lower than the poor performance companies in the listed real estate company. Actually, these conclusions are consistent with the basic economic principle, which can verify that the KMV model is reliable to be applied for the credit risk management of the listed real estate companies in China.It cannot be denied that there is a large gap between the European or American countries and our country in the credit risk management. Therefore, it’s time to accumulate the default date of the listed real estate company in China and accelerate the construction of enterprise credit default database. In addition, we also need to continue to strengthen the study of credit risk measurement models. At last, the author put forward some suggestions according to the empirical research process and results in the conclusion chapters, hoping to be beneficial to improve the level of credit risk management in the Chinese listed real estate company.