| Since China began reform of the housing system in 1998,housing construction and market management has been transformed from government-led to market-led. With the constant advance of urbanization in our country,asthe comprehensive result of various contradictions in real estate market, housing price has become the focus of public concernsuch as government, real estate developers,urban residents and so on. Recently,research on commodity housing price’s spatial segregation is mostly carried out from intercity or provincial level,having little consideration of commodity housing price’s the interaction effect on the space, and leading relevant functional departments often ignore the effect of space when they make macro-control policies in the real estate market, so that these policies couldn’t be overall-controlled, reasonable and effective and have lagging behind effect. And China’s real estate market regulation policy is developing from the unified macro-control to different elaborate. Since Chongqing’s direct-jurisdiction, commodity housing market price level is generally rising steadily, but still has very big development space compared with other cities. Therefore, it has important theoretical and practical significance to present the commodity housing price’s spatial segregationlaw research on the inland mountainous cities with polycentric spatial structure.With fully considering the housing price space effect, this article selecting nine urbanareas of Chongqing as the study area, making spatial econometric model analysis for housing price and influence factors of Chongqing urban area according to the real market data, aiming to explore the space effect rules of housing price spatial distribution mode and influencing factors to reflect the price and changesofreal estate market in different areas exactly, providing a scientific basis for the government and related departments to grasp the commodity housing price level in different areas of downtown Chongqing, formulate targeted real estate regulation policies and reasonably regulatingthe development and construction of residential land. Meanwhile, it provides some references for most people to know Chongqing’s housing price information in time, driving enhanced and investment housing demand, adopting reasonable strategies of purchasing house and investment decision.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)Formation of city housing prices is related to location. Housing price’s spatial distribution pattern is the direct expression of space effect and closely related to the urban space structure. Spatial distribution mode of Chongqing’s commodity housing price generally presentsisland distribution which is taking business circles as the core and has many centers. Through the spatial autocorrelation detection of sample housing prices, global Moran’s I index is 0.495 and shows significant autocorrelation. And its spatial distribution also presents agglomeration features which are "high-high" and "low-low". This shows thatThe formation of urban housing prices has a connection on the space and its space distribution pattern is influenced by space effect. It is Chongqing’s polycentric and group urban spatial structure that the housing price spatial differentiation characteristics show such rules:corresponding to its urban space structure, Chongqing is divided into multiple price areas bynatural landscapes such as Zhongliang Mountain, Tongluo Mountain, Yangtze river and Jialing River;housing price in northern part is higher than it in southern area, the focus of housing price had a trend to move to the north; housing prices extends to the periphery along the rail transit, and there is the trend to break the island phenomena of Chongqing real estate market.(2) Fitting degree of spatial hedonic model is superior to the traditional characteristic price model, wherein, the SDM model has the best effect,itshows that influence factors of housing price have strong spatial spillover effects. This study from building’s own characteristics, neighborhood characteristics and geographical characteristics selects 18 explanatory variables to build hedonic price model to analyze the influenced reasons of housing price space differentiation. Because housing price in downtown Chongqing has significant autocorrelation, if we introduce space effect to build SLM, SEM and SDM model respectively and compared them with the traditional OLS model,their goodness-of-fit R2 are 0.5780,0.5784,0.6153,0.5679, and the spatial econometric model is better than general linear regression model. Meanwhile,theAIC and SC test value of SDMis smaller than SLM and SEM, so SDM is the optimal spatial hedonic model. Explanatory variablesof housing price in downtown Chongqing have strong space externality, among them, the spatial spillover effects obviously haveseveral indexes such as living supporting, education supporting, total number of households, distance to rail site and so on.(3) The spatial distribution of housing price in downtown Chongqing is the result of comprehensive effect of the characteristic properties and the external power. According to the estimated results of the SDM model, the influence factors of housing price have significantly positive correlation of plate heat, property costs, parking spaces and plot ratio, they present significantly negative correlation of the total number of households, distance to rail site, distance to the CBD and education supporting. This proves that residential building’s own characteristics mainly present positive influence, and geographical features mainly have negative influence. So overall model shows that housing characteristics attributes are directly influence factors of housing price spatial distribution.Then polycentric urban structure, urbanization process and industrial structure of Chongqing accelerate the further differentiation of housing price space, and characteristic properties and the external power jointly constitute the mechanism of housing price spatial segregation.(4)The marginal effect degree of housing price’s influence factors in downtown Chongqing of is unsteady in space, and there are some differences among each spatial variation scale. It is affected bythe different overlay of influence factors’ spatial marginal effect that Chongqing’s housing market will produce space segregation.The factors which include traffic condition,residential quality, planning control and life convenience have obviously different influence on housing price. It shows that factors’distribution in the research area is unbalanced, wherein, the factors include basic education resource, public infrastructure and supporting facilities of community and so on.(5) Based on Voronoi space division technology and two step clustering method, combined with spatial variability of each factor, we designed the area division scheme of housing price statistics of Chongqing main urban area. The final zoning classification scheme can divide Chongqing main urban area into 5 level-1 areas and 14 level-2 plates. Non-balanced development of each area is the key problem of the stable development of Chongqingreal estate market. We should be adapted to local conditions, and take the appropriate control measures for different plates of different areas. And finally we can make the commercial housing market of Chongqing develop relatively balanced. |
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