Forecasting Model For The Returns Of Obsolete Househould Appliances

With the improvement of science and technology, the purchasing power of consumers is keeping rising. In recent years, Chinese household appliances social possession keep growing, and the number of obsolete household appliances is also more and more. Compared with many foreign developed countries, the obsolete household appliances recycling work research in China started later. The relevant regulations and the theoretical study are not perfect. Lots of researches such as obsolete household appliances recycling network planning、formulating appropriate incentive mechanism are based on accurate prediction of obsolete household appliances returns volume. But now most researches focus on the sales prediction of household appliances. So it is very urgent and important to do some researches on the prediction of obsolete household appliances returns volume.On top of the previous literatures and studies, and aiming at the characteristics of obsolete household appliances recycling activities, this paper analyses main factors which influence the recovery rate and set up a simulation model. Finally, this paper build a forecasting model for the returns of obsolete household appliances based on rough set theory, and use the simulation model to test the forecasting model. The main works of this paper include:(1) According to the present literatures and related data, the main factors which influence obsolete household appliances recycling are analyzed from three points:products, consumers, social environment. And the mechanism of these factors is also analyzed.(2) The entire process of obsolete household appliances return such as sale, using, recovery is analyzed. Select the TV set, refrigerator, microwave oven, irons as the representative to set up a obsolete household appliances returns simulation model based on present researches.(3) Because of the uncertainty and complexity of obsolete household appliances prediction problem, rough set approach is employed to reduce factors of returns of obsolete household appliances and derive the related rules between sales, other factors and returns. Finally, a forecasting model for the returns of obsolete household appliances based on rough set theory is built, and simulation data which come from the simulation model is used to test the forecasting model.This paper does some qualitative research about the process of obsolete household appliances return, and summarizes the influencing factors of obsolete household appliances return. Then build an obsolete television return quantity simulation model, and analyze the simulation results. Finally, this paper build and test the forecasting model which based on rough set theory, and the results prove the usefulness of the proposed rough set forecasting model.