Research On Risk Management Of The City Complex Project

Based on the existing research results about risk management in city complex from the domestic and foreign and combined with the inherent characteristics of city complex project, the risk management theory of city complex in an entire process is investigated by using literature analysis, quantitative and qualitative methods in this dissertation. At the same time, the theory has been verified it’s value in practice by applied the theory of risk management to practice of a certain city complex project risk management. The main research contents and results are as follows:1. The author found the existing problems at present and then put forward the research direction by reviewing the development status in risk management theory of city complex project and discussing the differences of the city complex project development between home and abroad; at the same time, the author defined the study concepts and scope, and definitions laid the foundation for the research.2. Aiming at the poor situation that risk management theory of city complex project management is not mature enough and the effect of management is poor, the author proposed the risk management idea of the whole process, this idea emphasizes not only the overall interest of a project, but also investigating risk identification and risk response in every stages of development. This measure ensures the systematicness and comprehensive in city complex project risk management.3. The risk identification method was deeply discussed. To solve the common problems that risk factors often omitted or repeated, the author proposed a method called "two-dimensional breakdown structure" to identify the risk. By using this method in the actual case, the author found that it is effective in solving the problem in risk identification.4. By using the method of analytic hierarchy process, the author analyzed and evaluated the risk factors. First of all, to calculate the weight of risk factors relative to the upper level, the author obtained the judgment matrix through the expert evaluation method, and carried on the consistency test latter; then, the author obtained the systematic weight and ranking of risk factors relative to the highest level through weighting the weights; finally the author found that the developers’ability is the biggest risk in city complex project through transverse and longitudinal analysis on the risk of the case and comparing with the calculation results.5. Carrying on risk response and this process was based on the development phase of a project as a unit. Based on the divided development phases and the risk analysis and evaluation results, fully considered the cost of risk identification, the author chose the risk factors that having a higher degree to threaten city complex project and then proposed the coping strategies.