Analysis Of The Impact Of Export To Private Enterprises Survival

Private enterprises are not only numerous, but also help to promote national economic development and employment, maintain social stability. And they are also play an important role in business innovation. With the deepening of reform in our country, private enterprises will play a more and more important role in the market economy. But compared with other ownership type of enterprises, private enterprises’status is low, and the production and business operation environment of them is poor. So their average survival time is not long, which is only 2.9 years. The development of private enterprise groups is critical to the stability and sustainable development of our national economy, so its high mortality rates must be taken seriously. In this premise, this article focuses on the survival problem of private enterprises, studying the impact of export and some other factors on the survival time of private enterprises.First, this paper reviews the developing process of private enterprises, and analyses their living situation to have a deeper understanding of the private enterprises. Then it introduces the survival analysis method, based on which, using Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimation method and risk rate curve to study the relationship between private enterprise survival time and export and other factors. Then, in the empirical part, based on the data of private enterprises of China’s industrial enterprise database from 1999 to 2007, this paper uses COX proportional hazards model to study the effects of export and other factors on private enterprise survival, and the empirical results are verified by Weibull estimation model. By the end of the article, combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical results, it puts forward some production and management measures and policy recommendations to extend the survival time of private enterprises and help them better develop.Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, we have following conclusions:export can significantly increase the survival time of private enterprises, but in different industry and region, the effect is different. In high technology industry and east region, the positive effect of export on private enterprise is more remarkable; The failure risk of private enterprises is decreased with the increase of enterprise scale; The relationship between survival and age of private enterprises is a unique "U"-shaped relationship. That is to say, it’s not the older the age of the enterprises, the lower the risk of failure, but there is a turning point, when the enterprises’age increase to a certain degree, not only don’t promote the enterprise survival, on the contrary, it will improve the failure probability of private enterprises. The higher the capital intensity, the greater the survival probability of private enterprises. Similarly, the higher the rate of return on sales, the lower the failure probability of private enterprises. That is to say, with higher operational efficiency, enterprises are more likely to survive. Asset-liability ratio has a positive impact on failure probability of private enterprises. In other words, high asset-liability ratio increases the risk of firm death, which is not conducive to enterprise survival. The higher the average wage, the more human capital investment, the greater the survival probability of private enterprises.