The Research On The Path Of Low-Carbon Development In Jinan City Based On Scenario Analysis

According to the statistical results of the international energy agency (IEA), by 2030, the city will consume three-quarters of the total world energy, while the city is the major source of the greenhouse gas. The climate warming is mainly due to the rising of the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. The main reason that results in the increasing of CO2 emissions is the industrialization and urbanization. The economic development of the Ji’nan city mainly relies on the industry developing, Meanwhile Ji’nan city is in rapid industrialization and urbanization process, which will lead to a large number of CO2 emissions. With the proposed of the right of carbon emissions recently, the relevant of carbon cost will restrict the rapid development of economy in Ji’nan. So the research of the carbon emissions and energy consumption in the medium and long-term plays an important practical significance on exploring the path of low-carbon development, and can also provide reference to the research of low-carbon development in other cities.The study mainly takes advantage of the software of the LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) and the tool of the GREAT (Green Resources and Energy Analysis Tool) to build low-carbon development scenarios of Jinan:Business and Usual Scenario; Control Scenario; High Efficiency Scenario. The research found that industry is the main source of the carbon emissions in variety of energy consuming department; the main energy source of carbon emissions is the energy of coal. Studies show that adjusting of the industrial structure, reducing of the energy consumption intensity, using of the clean energy such as wind power and solar energy can effectively reduce carbon emissions. In the Business and Usual Scenario, the consuming of energy increment is 1.38 million tons in 2014-2015; in Control Scenario the consuming of energy increment is 1.18 million tons; in High Efficiency Scenario the consuming of energy increment is 900 000 tons. If Ji’nan government allows the extensive mode of economic growth, The goal of 1.275 million tons about the consumption of the energy increment can’t be achieved, while the goal can be achieved in the Control Scenario and High Efficiency Scenario. In High Efficiency Scenario can be over complete the task. The total carbon emissions of High Efficiency Scenario than Business and Usual Scenario can reduce about 50% over the corresponding period.Combined with the result of the scenario analysis and the conditions of existing resources endowment in Ji’nan city, using the policy selection tool of BEST Cities (Benchmarking and Energy Saving Tool for Low Carbon Cities) to study the path of the low-carbon development: energy supplying low carbon, energy consuming low carbon, emission low carbon, from the perspective of the quantitative and qualitative.