Study On The Effect Of Beijing Logistics Development On Energy Saving And Emissions Reducing Based On LEAP Model

With energy shortage is getting more severe everyday, the logistics department, as a high energy consumption department, has brought higher environmental emissions. Beijing, as an international metropolis, has a higher and higher demand for energy consumption with its all types of logistics need, when the economy is in steady and high-speed growth, which then has caused the environmental emissions at the same time. Consequently, study on effect of logistics development on energy saving and emissions reducing is of great significance.Based on this background, this thesis chooses LEAP (Long-range Energy Analysis Plan System) model and scenario analysis to study the effect of Beijing logistics development on energy saving and emissions reducing by comparing several models. It establishes Beijing Logistics-Energy -Environment model from year 2000 as initial year to year 2030. At first it is divided into transport sector, logistics center sector and distribution sector. And furthermore, model parameters such as logistics demand volume, energy intensity and emission intensity are created by using the regression analysis etc. The model results show that the energy demand and environmental emissions are both decreased on each developing scenario compared with corresponding reference scenario at different degree. At last, this thesis gives thought to Beijing logistics development from the view of saving energy and reducing emissions. Hopefully, the suggestions in this thesis can provide some useful reference to the logistics development in Beijing.