Research On Energy Consumption Trend Of Transportation Industry In Sichuan Province Based On LEAP Model

Transport is the basic industry of national economy, the transportation energy is currently one of the major areas of our country energy demand and consumption.Establishing a scientific and reasonable prediction model of transportation energy consumption has an important significance on the transportation industry structure optimization, energy conservation and emissions reduction in Sichuan province.According to passenger and freight traffic of transport, this paper made railways,highways, waterways and civil aviation as its key research object, 2013 as reference period,built a model of transportation energy consumption of Sichuan province by LEAP. By researching the transport energy consumption trend of Sichuan province under baseline scenario, structure energy saving scenario, technology energy saving scenario and integrated energy saving scenario, exploring a scientific and reasonable transport structure optimization path, the paper attempts to provide decision-making basis and reference of transportation industry structure optimization energy conservation and emissions reduction through optimizing transport structure, improving waterways proportion, developing the high-speed rail importantly and strengthening technology research and application promotion.This paper is divided into six chapters. Chapter one is introduction, mainly introduced the research background, significance, content, method and framework of this paper;Chapter two mainly reviewed domestic and foreign transportation energy consumption problems of related literature and theory; Chapter three mainly analyzed the transportation industry in Sichuan province and its energy consumption; Chapter four built LEAP model of Sichuan province, predict turnover of the transportation industry in Sichuan province;Chapter five discussed transportation energy consumption of Sichuan province according to different scenarios, thus by using the LEAP model calculated transportation energy consumption, and then through comparing and analyzing the data under different scenarios chose the optimal method of energy saving; Finally, basing on the above, chapter six drew a conclusion, put forward solutions and suggestions.