The Empirical Study On Export Potential Of China To Arab Countries Against The Background Of “One Belt And One Road” Strategy

The new trend of economy is bound to bring more space of development in the international trade market. The vigor times will also drive the national trade between China and Arab to the last new stage. To date, there are thousands of years between China and Arab exchanges. Economic and trade cooperation forum was held successfully in the "One Belt and One Road" strategy background, between China and Arab countries in various fields of economy and trade. Political culture and financial investments will usher the new opportunities, and development prospects of a good trade relations between China and Arab. This paper will analyze the export potential from China to Arab in the background of "One Belt and One Road" strategy. Firstly, the paper introduced the "One Belt and One Road" to bring all aspects of the benefits with the exchanges between China and Arab. Then, through analyzing the current development situation of Arab national economic, the results show the development situation of Arab countries economic is good. In the world market, status also improved obviously. However, compared with China, Arab countries in the level of economic development are still insufficient. In the aspect of industrial structure, Arab state of the mechanical equipment and other industrial manufactured goods and demand for light industrial products are still great. In the fourth part of this thesis, we analyzed the present situation which of China trading with Arab. In recent years, the rapid development of economic and trade relations in China, the performance of the most prominent is reflected in trade scales between China and Arab countries. The statistical data shows, bilateral trade volume from $15206000000 in 2000 increased to $248188000000 in 2014, the exports increased from $6378000000 in 2000 to $113851000000 in 2014, and the imports increased from $8829000000 in 2000 to $134337000000 in 2014. Therefore, the trade develops rapidly. As a major partner in the Chinese foreign trade, although the state status of Arab has risen, Arab is still behind the developed countries, the European Union and other American occupying more Chinese market, showing that the China and Arab trade promotion space is still very great.In addition, this paper also borrowed gravity model revised analysis of factors and effect of export potential between China and Arab countries. In this paper, there are two parts respectively from the total level and industry level research. We selected the panel data of 1999-2013 years between China and 53 countries. The exports regression estimates of which 6 are in Arab state, and the remaining 47 is China main export country. The model selected Chinese exports to countries the dependent variable, the nominal GDP, GDP per capital, economic distance, the real effective exchange rate of RMB and per capital GDP difference absolute value as the independent variables. Through econometric analysis, we aimed to explore the influencing factors between China and Arab countries. From the empirical analysis and export potential calculation, the results shows, in the aggregate level, except for Oman economic growth will promote exports to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco, rising real effective exchange rate of RMB will not help Chinese exports to the country of Arab, and thesis study in Arabia countries are more dependent on imports from Chinese products, this and the other countries of the world trend is consistent results compared. And at the industry level, the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the degree of dependence on foreign trade effect and total level results, where GDP growth of fossil fuels and other related materials industry will negatively influence the exports. The other 9 industries with the GDP growth will play a role in promoting. According to the size of the export potential of the industry is divided in order to three categories, which are demand trade type, stable trade type and excessive trade type. The results show, according to their own economic conditions, Arab countries in each industry has different demands. Finally, in order to deal with the existence of China and Arab trade issues effectively, the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions.