Research On China's Export Potential On The Belt-and-Road Countries

A strategic concept of “the Belt and Road”(“B&R”),which means “the Silk Road Economic Belt” and “the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”,was proposed by Xi Jinping in 2013.It is not only an initiative,but also a concept of cooperation and mutual benefit,which will be a new growth point for China's economy.Since the introduction of “the Belt and Road” was proposed,the volume of trade between China and countries along the routes has become more and more extensive.But how much is the potential of China's export trade to countries along "the Belt and Road" ? What are the main factors that block the way to achieve trade potential,and to what extent?Based on this,adopting the quantitive and qualitative analysis,this article focus on China's export potential on the Belt-and-Road Countries.Selecting the panel data that China export to “The Belt and Road” countries trade from 2007 to 2016,establishing of the expanded gravity model,the results shows that the per capita GDP,the market size of importing countries,economic freedom of import countries,the two sides signed regional trade agreements have a significant positive impact to China trade flows,and distance and inland country status show a negative impact;China exporting to Bhutan and other 16 countries trade belongs to the“huge potential”,for Albania and other 17 countries export trade belongs to“potential development”,for Saudi Arabia and other 25 countries export trade belongs to the“potential to shape”.And the same time,the export trade market structure of China to the Belt-and-Road Countries.presents certain regional characteristics: the export trade potentiality is more bigger between China and 8 countries of South Asia,the commonwealth of independent states(cis)seven with Mongolia,16 central and eastern European countries.Based on the above results,the last chapter of this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations,optimize the structure of export commodities,promote free trade agreements along the route,improve trade and transport-related infrastructure,and strengthen cross-border cultural exchanges,strengthen trade development with all regions along the route.