Research On The Potential Of China’s Producer Services Export To The Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

As an important part of an open economy,the concept of the "Belt and Road"has attracted widespread attention once it was put forward.With its unique political status,the "B&R" provides a broader space for the development of producer services.Therefore,the exploration of the potential of producer services has played a pivotal role.Firstly I construct a bilateral trade model of 15 industries of producer services between China and 15 countries along the "Belt and Road" of the WIOD databases,and calculate the trade value-added of China’s producer services to the sample countries as the data basis on the method of WWZ(2015).And through the value-added rate,the added value,industrial imports as the perspective of the status quo description.Secondly,this paper uses the BRI elements of "Trade Five Links" to construct a model of factors affecting export potential.On the basis of traditional gravity model,increasing population size,income level,financing level,trade complexity/service sub-item technology level as the main influencing factors,selecting political level,border,economic freedom,and border conditions as non-efficiency factors of trade,using stochastic frontier gravity model to carry out empirical analysis,and then calculate trade potential value.Then,I use the empirical results to measure the trade efficiency and the trade potential value of the overall and each sub-sector.It is concluded that:(1)China’s trade potential to the countries along the "B&R" is mostly lower than the average,indicating that the scale of trade is seriously insufficient;(2)Czech Republic,Estonia,Hungary,Indonesia,India and Russia are mature markets with high potential value and high efficiency value;Latvia and Turkey are emerging markets with large market capacity,high potential value and low efficiency value;and Bulgaria and Greece are traditional market with low potential value and high efficiency value;Cyprus,Croatia,Lithuania,Slovakia and Slovenia are the sunset markets with low efficiency value and potential value;(3)in China,the industries that are exported to all countries along the "Belt and Road"are still traditional producer services,while the emerging producer services industries such as finance,insurance,programming,consulting and information services has not been effectively exploited.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions:(1)Policy communication should be strengthened,appropriate ways and correct modes should be selected for development on the basis of respecting the wishes of countries;(2)Promoting financing environment and promoting economic growth of countries along the"B&R",thereby narrowing income gap,reducing trade frictions and enhancing trade potential;(3)Striving to enhance the trade environment,increase infrastructure connectivity,and increase the development of producer services,especially in the transport industry;(4)Adhere to multi-party exchanges,carry out extensive multi-party exchanges of producer services along the "B&R" countries,narrow the bilateral technological gap and promote China’s export;(5)Optimize the trade structure to achieve a targeted goal;(5)Optimizing the trade structure to achieve targeted.We should consolidate the mature market with high potential and high efficiency,open up the emerging market with large market capacity,high potential and low efficiency,maintain the traditional market with low potential and high efficiency,and reduce the sunset market with low efficiency and low potential.