Research On China's Manufacturing Industry's Export Potential To The "Belt And Road" Countries

China is a manufacturing and trading power.Since China's accession to the WTO,China's manufacturing exports have developed very rapidly and have become an important part of China's foreign trade.As the globalization process continues to advance,China's manufacturing exports face both opportunities and challenges.Faced with the grim situation of weak global economic growth,China needs to adopt correct strategies to actively explore emerging manufacturing export markets and ensure the sustainable and stable development of China's manufacturing export trade.At present,the construction of the "Belt and Road" has been upgraded to a national strategy,strengthening cooperation and exchanges between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road",and providing new opportunities for promoting the development of China's manufacturing exports.In this context,it is of great practical significance to study the factors affecting,export efficiency and export potential the manufacturing exports of countries along the "Belt and Road" to expand the scale of China's manufacturing exports and the upgrading of export structure.This paper conducts an empirical study on export efficiency based on background introduction,literature review,and current situation analysis.On the one hand,the literature review section summarizes the current research status of the "Belt and Road”and finds that the research still needs to be improved and in-depth.On the other hand,it sorts out the literature on the measurement of trade potential and its influencing factors,and provides a basis for the model construction of this paper.The research on the status quo of exports is based on China's manufacturing export data for countries along the Belt and Road Initiative from 1996 to 2016,divided into three levels:total volume and export commodity structure and geographic structure.It provides a statistical description of China's export level,trade status and development trend of manufacturing industries along the "Belt and Road" countries,laying the analytical foundation for the study of export efficiency and export potential.In the empirical research part,the stochastic frontal gravitational model and the export non-efficiency model are used for regression,which is divided into two levels:the total amount and the industry.The factors in the stochastic frontier gravitational model determine the size of the export potential.The factors in the export non-efficiency model affect the export efficiency,which affects the realization of export potential.The empirical results show that the per capita GDP of the importing and exporting countries and the total population of the importing countries all have a positive effect on the manufacturing exports,and the degree of influence on different industries varies.China's per capita GDP is more effective in driving labor-intensive manufacturing and capital-intensive manufacturing exports than its export to technology-intensive manufacturing.The total population and geographical distance of exporting countries have a significant negative impact on manufacturing exports.The total population of China has a strong inhibitory effect on labor-intensive manufacturing and capital-intensive manufacturing exports.Common language and common borders have a significant positive effect,and landlocked countries are not conducive to trade.From the point of view of the inefficient institutional environment of export,the signing of a free trade agreement with China and joining the World Trade Organization will help promote the export of China's manufacturing industry.Government efficiency can alleviate export inefficiency and have the greatest mitigation effect on technology-intensive manufacturing.Political stability and quality of regulation also promote export inefficiency.Specific to the industry level,political stability has a much greater impact on technology-intensive than on labor-intensive manufacturing and capital-intensive manufacturing.In general,currency freedom can also ease manufacturing export inefficiency,but has little impact on labor-intensive manufacturing exports.Financial freedom promotes export inefficiency.For three specific industries,the effect is not significant.China's average export efficiency of the "Belt and Road" countries is 0.69,and there is still room for export expansion.Export efficiency has been increasing since 2002.After the global financial crisis,the export efficiency has declined.It has risen to a maximum of 0.72 in 2014,but it has declined in recent years.In terms of regions,China's manufacturing industry is more efficient in exporting to Asia's Oceania region,and its export efficiency to Eastern Europe is relatively backward.In terms of specific industries,from 2002 to 2016,the export efficiency levels of the three industries all showed a trend of rising first,then falling and then rising.Among them,capital-intensive manufacturing performed well,followed by labor-intensive manufacturing,and technology-intensive average export efficiency was the lowest.Further to the regional level of each industry,Asia's Oceania region is more prominent in labor-intensive manufacturing and capital-intensive manufacturing,and it is equally good in Africa and Latin America in technology-intensive manufacturing.The performance of the three industries in Eastern Europe is relatively backward.According to the research results,this paper puts forward policy recommendations from the perspectives of economy,trade and industry for China's manufacturing export status and existing problems in the countries along the "Belt and Road".Accelerate the pace of China's economic transformation,deepen trade cooperation with countries along the "Belt and Road",expand new space for international cooperation,enhance independent innovation capabilities,reshape core competitive advantages,optimize export structure,and improve export quality.According to the export structure characteristics of different regions,China should take corresponding measures to further improve the export efficiency of the manufacturing industry and expand China's manufacturing exports to the countries along the "Belt and Road".