Study On Carrying Capacity Assessment For Resource And Environment In Guizhou Province

Enrichment of energy resources in guizhou, fragile ecological environment, as well as poverty is prominent in less developed provinces, facing the thorough implementation of western development strategy, speed up the industrialization and informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization great opportunities. To achieve leapfrog development, rapid economic and social development and the contradiction of resource environmental bearing capacity will be further intensified. In this critical period, the background of the resources and environment carrying capacity in guizhou, constraints, and potential, to guide economic and social development and the industry layout has important guiding significance.This paper combed the domestic and foreign research situation of resource environmental bearing capacity, resources and environment economics, sustainable development theory as the instruction, to define the concept of regional resources environmental bearing capacity, namely a certain stage of development, must have the space, resources and environment supporting ability of coordinated economic and social development. Analyses the resources environment and the coupling relationship between social development and mechanism of resource environmental bearing capacity structure framework is put forward. On this basis, construct the evaluation index system of resources and environment carrying capacity in guizhou province.This paper elaborates on the development of system dynamics method, characteristic and working principle. According to system dynamics modeling steps, in combination with the practical situation of guizhou’s economic and social development and resource environment, resources and environment carrying capacity system dynamics model is established, constructs the system dynamic equation. Input and adjusting the parameters of the system variables set operation model, and by using historical data to test, test results are basically identical.According to the statistical yearbook in guizhou, the gazette of land and resources in guizhou, guizhou water gazette, "guizhou province economic and social development five-year plan" and "the land use planning in guizhou, 2006-2020" and other official statistics, this paper analyses the resources environment and the economic and social development in guizhou historical data trends, achieve maximum, minimum and average, respectively, set High scenarios(High), the baseline scenario(Base) and Low scenarios(Low) three development modes. By adjusting the variable set parameters, system dynamics simulation, get the bearing capacity under different scenarios main index variable values in 2006-2030.Scenario analysis, according to the results of resource environmental bearing capacity of main indexes corresponding to the different situation has different values, most indicators to adapt to the 2015 and 2020, planning objectives. But some indicators and planning, we still have some gap in expectations, to adjust economic policy and development modes, in accelerating the development of economy at the same time, the need to protect arable land and ecological civilization construction.Because of the complexity of the resource environment and economic society system, data availability and its level of restrictions, the study also some deficiencies, expect to do further discuss in subsequent research.