Construction Of Financial Risk Identification System Of Real Estate Enterprises Based On Logistic Model

Real estate industry, as one of the important economic engines, is a pillar industry of national economy. Due to the rapid development of the industry in the early stage and the stock surplus of commodity house, the government adopts strict policy for regulation. The real estate industry has such features as low financial liquidity and long investment recovery cycle and its financing requirements are higher than other industries. However, its loan environment is not optimistic and the enterprises face high financial expense and high asset-liability ratio, which do not only affect the profitability and even possibly cause financial crisis due to the deterioration of financial situation. Therefore, it is of realistic significance to identify and monitor the financial risks of real estate enterprises.First, the domestic and foreign classical studies with regard to the construction of financial risk identification system and index selection are reviewed in this paper. The financial risk identification index selection is of theoretical analysis from financial view and cash flow view respectively based on business cycle theory, contract theory and signal transmission theory on the premise of being clear about the concept and essence of financial crisis and facing the multi-view and multi-dimension complexity of financial risk identification index selection and the financial risk identification index system of real estate enterprises is built from macro and micro level of financial risk of real estate enterprises and the mechanism of action of financial factors and non-financial factors. Then, *ST real estate enterprises are selected for matching with the sample group and the original financial data of 21 paired samples *ST of the last one year to the last three years are of significance test by independent sample test and Wilcoxon’s signed rank test; next, the significant indexes are of rigorous logistic regression analysis and then the model is built with validity test. Finally, the research conclusion and research enlightenment are presented in this paper according to the theoretical analysis and empirical test results. This research aims at building the model that applies to the real estate enterprises of China and covers their features by quantitative test and qualitative analysis so as to assist the real estate enterprises in finding the potential financial risks, provide basis for the development of risk control path and make stakeholders have more intuitive evaluation of financial risks of enterprises.