| Land is the most basic material of human survival and development.Along with the growth of population and the development of economy,the relationship between human and land is becoming more and more closely,with more and more strong interaction between them,while the attendant problems of resources and environment have also been strong concern in the community.The change of land use has become a main factor of the environment change,and the research on land use change and driving force has become a hot spot in land science research.The paper select Laiwu in Shandong Province as the object of study, base on the analysis of the regional situation and the dynamic changes in land use by the 5- year’s data of land use survey from 2009 to 2013, on the combination of gray GM(1,1) prediction model to predict the region’s land-use trends by the data mentioned above,and probing the driving forces of dynamic changes affecting land use in the region by the 10-year’s statistical data of Laiwu from 2004 to 2013. Then specific protection measures are made,which are based on the land use change driving factor and which has important significance on land resources rationally and effectively use, and the realization of the sustainable development of land use in Laiwu.The main findings are as follows:(1) Land use dynamic change and the prediction of it.There is no big change in the whole land use structure in Laiwu,which all are in arable land, woodland, grassland and urban village and industrial land for the main types of the land use,and the four mentioned above account for nearly 80 percent of total land area,but great changes have happened among the various land use types.The number of land use change. As to the margin of the land use change,the arable land,urban village and industrial land and transportation land has respectively increased by0.34 percent, 6.13 percent and 1.92 percent,in which the urban village and industrial land hasincreased a largest margin,from 31269.06 hm2 to 33185.59 hm2;while the garden, woodland,grassland, water and water conservancy facilities land and other lands is showing negative growth phenomenon in which the largest reduction of grassland decreased from 34193.44 hm2 to 32703.59 hm2,with a rate of reduce by 4.36%. The single dynamic degree of land use in the speed of land use change,in addition to the urban and industrial land the village,the degree of others are relatively small,with a number lower than 1%, indicating that the change of various types of land should be slowly in Laiwu.The change in integrated land use dynamic rate approximately is 0.20 %,indicating that the speed of land use change overall conversion is slower in Laiwu.Degree on changes in land use.The degree of composite index in land use rose from266.55 to 268.42 from 2009 to 2013,with its degree specific amount of change in land useΔ L = 1.87 and the change rate R=0.70%,indicating that the area of land use is in a development period and human activities affect in land use in the region is slightly increased.The utilization of land is higher and almost no change, from 93.19 percent in 2009 to 93.28%in 2013,with the reclamation rate from 32.22% to 32.33%,while the landscape deviation is from 61.21% to 62.05%,reflecting the strong extent of the transformation of the natural environment of people in Laiwu.All in all,the degree of land use in Laiwu is showing a weak rising trend, which indicates that level of the land use in Laiwu is in a stable development and constantly strike to mature state.The spatial structure of land use change.The land-use diversity index are all 1.85 in Laiwu in 2009 and 2013,reflecting that the diversity of land use in recent years is maintaining a relatively stable state.At the same time, the index of the dominance in land use of the two years are all 0.23, reflecting that the proportion of each type of land in Laiwu has maintained relatively close in recent years.While the index of evenness of two years of land use are all0.89,which close to 1,indicating that the uniformity of distribution of soil types has maintained a high level in this region.Overall,it can be concluded that the activity of human is in a period of balance,with the human impact on the natural environment remains stable and the slow development of the diversify of types in land use.In addition, with the help of GM(1,1) model for the prediction of the future land use trends in Laiwu,here comes the result showed that the changes of the structure of combinations of number in land use in Laiwu is not particularly big,with mainly concentrated in urban village and industrial land, grassland and woodland,but the changes between various types of land are quite different. Arable land, urban village and industrial land, transportation land area has been increasing, in which the urban village and industrial land has increased the most from 2010 to 2020,with an increase of 4835.77 hm2;while garden, woodland, grassland,water and land for water conservancy facilities have been in reduction, in which the grassland has reduced the most between 2010-2020,with a total reduction of 2639.18hm2;however,the other land has increased after the first decrease,with ultimately reducing a total of 14.40 hm2.(2) Research on driving forces of land use dynamic change. Qualitative analysis of the impact on the regional driving force of land use change shows that the natural driving force,in which the most significant affect are from the geology and geomorphology and mineral resources.While the quantitative analysis of principal component analysis extracted two principal components,means that the social and economic driving force can be grouped into two categories:population and economic growth and urban development and investment.The two principal components of the driving force of the composite scores show that comprehensive score of 2004 to 2013 respectively:-2.13,-1.34,-0.41, 0.09 and 0.91, 0.52,0.62, 0.76, 0.59 and 0.38, which is negative from 2004 to 2006 years but gradually transformat to positive in 2007 and reach the maximum in 2008, indicating that the effect of land use change driving force in Laiwu is greatly enhanced, then rising volatility, finally slowly weakening, illustrate the driving force factor influence gradually weakened.But, the trend of land use change driving force present is rising overall.(3) Countermeasures and suggestions for land use in Laiwu city. The countermeasure and suggestion is the ultimate goal of the research of the dynamic change of land use, and has the important guidance function to the reasonable and efficient use of land. The paper proposed countermeasures and suggestions for land use in optimization of Laiwu respectively from the aspects of population, economic development, urban construction and investment,based onthe analysis and prediction of land use change and driving force research. |
PDF Full Text Request