The Analysis Of Demand And Supply Of The Housing Market In Guangzhou Based On Disequilibrium Theory

There are two kinds of state of operation of social economy, which are balanced state and non balanced state. The equilibrium state is relative, and a good goal of operation of social economy; but the non balanced state is absolute, and a normal state of operation of social economy. The housing market is closely linked with people’s life, whose importance is self-evident, and the housing price is always the focus of people’s attention, and the relationship between supply and demand which affects housing prices has become a hotspot of economists’research.In recent years, housing prices in Guangzhou rose too fast. On the level of the relationship between supply and demand, there are contradictions between total supply and total demand in housing market, and there are phenomena of pile up in excess of requirement and shortage exist at the same time, which explains the relationship between supply and demand is not balanced. Therefore this paper is based on the theory of non equilibrium to study the relationship with supply and demand in the housing market of Guangzhou city, which makes the results more practical, and to find the problem more effectively and to put forward policy suggestions to solve the problems.The thesis is composed of five chapters totally. The first chapter analyzes the research background、research significance and research situation at home and abroad., then put forward research content and research train of thought. The second chapter introduces the theoretical basis of the real estate market, including the supply and demand theory and equilibrium theory in real estate market.The third chapter conducts the research from the two dimensions of the land market and the housing market from temporal and spatial distribution of the Guangzhou housing market. By comparing the amount of plans to sell residential lands and the actual amount of residential lands sold openly, we can see the land amount of supply and demand of housing market in Guangzhou city is unbalanced; in the perspective of spatial distribution, by comparing plans to sell residential lands and the actual residential lands sold openly of each regional, we can see the land structure of supply and demand of housing market in Guangzhou city is unbalanced; then through further elaborations of the supply and demand of housing and housing vacancy and the change of housing price, we find the relationship between with supply and demand of housing in Guangzhou is not balanced.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of residential supply and demand from three aspects-total amount, structure and price in Guangzhou city. In the perspective ofIn the perspective of the amount of supply and demand, firstly we established behavior decision model to find out the indicators which influence the relationship of supply and demand and to get long-term equation of supply and demand; and then we build the disequilibrium econometric model based on non equilibrium theory. In different points we explore the causes why the relationship of the amount of supply and demand of housing market in Guangzhou city is not balanced. The study found that adjustment of the relationship supply and demand in Guangzhou residential market is not only dependent on the price mechanism, but also mechanism of number and the expected effect. In the perspective of the structure of supply and demand, we used a large number of statistical data to illustrate non equilibrium of supply and demand structure in detail from three aspects of product structure, regional distribution and product types in Guangzhou housing market. Finally, we analyze the non equilibrium of supply and demand of price through the calculation of price-to-income ratio in different years and in different income levels.The fifth chapter is the conclusion and policy suggestions. According to the not balanced relationship of demand and supply of residential market, we put forward the policy suggestions, that the government should take the structure to balance the supply and demand, to adjust the housing supply structure and to control housing price.