The Research On Real Estate Credit Risk Measurement And Management Of Commercial Bank In China

Since the housing reform in 1998, after more than 10 years, the rapid development of real estate industry has made remarkable achievements. In 2014, however, is a challenging year for the real estate industry, affected by the economic environment, the indicators of the real estate industry fall back comprehensively, on the one hand, the enterprise investment growth subdue and the enthusiasm of development decline, on the other hand, personal wait-and-see mood is serious and housing sluggish sales. Under the background, the credit default events are occurring, real estate credit risk accumulated by many years begin to gradually reveal. At present, it is very necessary to do so urgent research on the macro influencing factors analysis and management of real estate credit risk. The article substitute the real estate non-performing loan ratio for commercial bank real estate credit defaults (defaults ratio), to measure and evaluate the size or degree of the real estate credit risk.After the first chapter, the second chapter in the paper discusses from the introduction to the theory of real estate credit expansion, successively gives the definition, characteristics and classification of real estate credit, then reviews the development of real estate credit business in recent years and find out the related problems, which lay the groundwork for later research in the real estate credit risk. The third chapter does the qualitative research of real estate credit risk, and it introduce the concept, its characteristics and the concrete manifestation of reality associated with the risk of real estate credit, then analyzes the sources of risk from two main perspectives of ordinary buyers and development enterprises, followed by a detailed analysis of the transmission mechanism of risk and accumulation process, finally from the current risk assessment method in the process looks for a series of problems, which in turn lay the foundation for later quantitative research. At first, the fourth chapter on quantitative research introduces the CPV model, it is concluded that this model in our country is theoretically feasible, then based on the research in the model, this paper collect the datas of real estate non-performing loan ratio from China Construction Bank and then choose 8 indicators from the national bureau of statistics, the people’s bank of China and other website that may affect the real estate credit risk:GDP, fixed investment, M2, 3-5year loan interest rate, large financial institutions deposit reserve rate, the RMB exchange rate against us $100, GuoFang index and CPI, collection of all are the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2013 a total of 36 issue of the quarterly data. Next, rebuild the real estate credit risk measurement model on the basis of the CPV model, and then carry on the correlation analysis and test, the results show that real estate credit default probability was positively related with the benchmark 3-5-year lending rate, and M2, the RMB exchange rate against us $100 and CPI were negatively related to the credit default. The study further proves that the CPV model is suitable for the analysis of changes in the macroeconomic situation, and further to fill the domestic blank of the macro influencing factors analysis and management of commercial bank’s real estate credit risk in the empirical research. The end of the paper, based on the above qualitative quantitative analysis, puts forward the real estate credit risk management countermeasures and suggestions by combining with the actual situation of our country from two aspects:the government and the bank. All in all, the government and Banks should joint create the internal and external environment of real estate credit business, they should cooperate and supervise each other.