Research On The Evolution Of Flying Geese Model For Bohai Ports Under The Opening Of Northeast Passage

With the rapid development of economic globalization and the integration of regional economy, in order to better adapt the current trends in international trade, the ports in China increase its position in the national and regional economy and trade, with constantly optimizing their size. However, it results in more competitive between ports or port groups, because of belonging to different administrative divisions and different subjects of local interest. And this competition becomes more and more intensified with port size optimization which is caused by rapid economic development.Coupled with the current, the upcoming of Arctic shipping routes will not only lead to the change of shipping network, the international division of labor and coastal industrial layout, but also will inevitably change the current structure of the port’s cargo category, and set off a huge changes of the port scale and port layout. However, the ports in Bohai Bay are undoubtedly the biggest stakes, because they are so closed to the Arctic routes, and they are regarded as an important bridge between China and Europe or North America. Therefore, in the context of the disorder development of the port, the opening of the Arctic route is bound to intensify the process of development, it may intensify the contradiction between the ports in Bohai Bay, while binging down unprecedented development opportunities for these ports. So, it should be the prime consideration for the future development plan of ports that how to deal with the tremendous changes.In view of this, this paper expands the meaning and scope of Goose prediction model, to rank port scale of the ports in Bohai Bay with the theory. And then the paper divides the ports into three gradients, analyses the subsequent of the upgrade and optimize for the ports on the base of the theory of comparative advantage and labor cost. For further research, the paper refers Bohai sea ports as the research object, and mainly analyses the impact Northeast Passage has on the cargo throughput, container throughput and operational efficiency for Bohai ports, based on summing the close contact of shipping routes and port scale, and then deeply analyses the comprehensive scores before and after the opening of Northeast Passage with principal component analysis, indicating that the opening will not break the current stage of Flying Geese Model of Bohai sea ports, but the development order for different ports will change in the same level. At last, in response to this situation, the paper puts forward different development proposals to these, which provides a scientific basis for the port managers to develop a reasonable strategy.