Study On The Fluctuation Of China’s Broiler Industry And Early Warning Of Its Price

Since the reform and opening up, as a new growth point of animal economic,the broiler industry has developed with its rapid pace and made outstanding contributions to promoting agricultural economic development and improving people’s living standards and diet structure. However in recent years, suffering from the impact of the incident itself and the outside world,the broiler industry has experienced frequent fluctuations.As the intuitive representation of industrial development, broiler price volatility has been accompanied by the rise and fall of the development of broiler industry, largely to reflect the characteristics of the industry boom.Based on this,we can observe the broiler price boom to speculate judge the whole broiler boom state of the industry, also we can establish early warning system of broiler price to achieve the purpose to forecast the broiler industry development trend. Based on these considerations, this paper devoted to analyzing the broiler industry development status and changes in the production and sales situation, analyzing the price of chicken products in-depth, summarizing the main factors which can result in the fluctuation of broiler products’ price, combining with the availability of data, building early warning indicator system, establishing chicken products price sentiment index, building chicken products price volatility early warning system. By observing the early warning system,suggest the overall trend and determine the future status of broiler industry, provide decision reference for participants of broiler industry.To analyze the macroeconomic fluctuations of broiler industry, the paper mainly include three aspects,namely production, consumption and international trade of broiler industry.The main analysis indicators of production include broiler breeding stock production, slaughter, meat production, etc; The main indicators of consumption include the proportion of Per capita consumption of chicken accounted for per capita meat consumption,the differences between rural and urban in chicken consumption; The major analysis indicators of international trade include exports of live chickens, chicken exports, chicken imports. For the empirical analysis of price fluctuations of broiler industry, the paper mainly uses X12 seasonal adjustment and the HP filter as its analyzing methods to analyze the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations, the long-term trend component and changes in composition of the cycle and random variation component of the price of ingredients broiler industry.Climate index can include all indicators which has influence in broiler industry,and we can observe the state of the economy broiler industry through the established early warning light to make correct choice.Studies have shown that the broiler industry have appeared obvious cyclical fluctuations and seasonal fluctuations,and the impact of unexpected events is obvious,too;broiler industry’s leading and coincident indicators can well predict the price of broiler industry fluctuations; basing on this,we can calculate early warning indicators,and it also has good prediction effect.The warning signal system can provide economic body who participate broiler industry a good reference for the economic decision-making.