The Establishment And Emrimical Analysis Of The Actuarial Model Of Chinese Urban And Rural Social Endowment Insurance

Endowment insurance is the most important part of social security system for every country, and china is no exception. From the beginning of the reform of the basic old-age insurance system for the urban workers in China in 1997, to the experiments of the new rural social endowment insurance system in 2009, and then the combination of urban residents and rural residents social old-age insurance system in 2013, the Chinese society endowment insurance system improved and developed continuously in the process of a series of reformation. However, in recent years, with the accelerated pace of population aging, the Chinese social endowment insurance system also face many problems and challenges. This paper will be based on the chinese conditions, establish urban and rural residents pension actuarial model, predict the future development of pension, and adjust pension parameters. There is a very important practical significance for guiding the endowment insurance system into a virtuous cycle track and promoting the sustainable development of Chinese endowment insurance system and the harmonious development of the society.As the operation mechanism of the urban basic old-age insurance system and rural social endowment insurance system is not the same, and the faced problems and the root of the problem is not the same, we must establish the model and study respectively. For the urban basic old-age insurance system, the first step, based on the analysis of pension income, expenditure and the balance, combined with the Leslie recursive model of the population structure, the exponential growth model of GDP, and Logistic model of wages,establishes the actuarial model of the urban basic old-age insurance. The second step,according to the related data and the given parameter, predicts the trend of fund changes in future 55 years by the actuarial model. The results showed that the urban basic old-age insurance fund balance by 2055 will be negative, the fund payments imbalance situation in the latter part is very serious. So the urban basic old-age insurance system is not sustainable operation.The third step make adjustment for parameters in the actuarial model such as the retirement age, the substitution rate, the fertility rate and the rate of return on investment. Three adjustment schemes can make the urban basic old-age insurance system through the stage of population aging:(1) the retirement age delay for five years beginning at 2021 and the general substitution rate is increased by 5%;(2)gradually release the two child policy, the total fertility rate almost is doubled in 2031,and the rate of return on investment is up to 5%;(3) the retirement age delay for two yearsbeginning at 2021, the general substitution rate is increased by 4%, the total fertility rate is increased almost 0.8 times, and the rate of return on investment is increased to 5%.These three schemes can make urban basic old-age insurance fund balance in 2070, and later with the population structure adjusted can gradually achieve a balanced budget.For the new rural social endowment insurance system, the actuarial model for personal account is established based on the analysis of the income and expenditure of the fund. Then combined with the population lifetime distribution, analysis the "guarantee the basic" and "sustainable" problems of new rural social endowment insurance. The results showed that:(1) the guarantee of the basic risk is very serious. if not encourage farmers to increase the pay grade, the basic life of rural elderly will be difficult to be guaranteed.(2)There is a gap in the new rural social endowment insurance personal account pension about 21%. And this gap has nothing to do with population structure, It is a system gap the design. The new rural social endowment insurance needs the continuous government’s subsidy to keep sustainable operation.At the end of this paper, according to the research conclusion, three aspects of reform proposals were present to the urban basic old-age insurance system such as the adjusting the birth policy appropriately, delaing the retirement policy appropriately and raising fund management policy gradually. As well as, three aspects of reform proposals also were present to the new rural social endowment insurance system such as adjusting payment subsidy policy differentially, raising fund management policy gradually and delaing the retirement policy appropriately.