Study On Dynamic Change Of Real Estate Credit Rating In China

The real estate industry is closely geared to the national economic development and people’s lives. Since the reform of the real estate industry in 1998, it has been the leading industry of our country. In recent years, the country has issued a series of policies to adjust and control price because of the Irrational rise and speculation of the real estate price. The real estate industry has accumulated considerable risks, so understanding the credit status of companies in this industry has important significance in both sides of financing.and goverment.Domestic rating companies about the real estate enterprise is aim at a single enterprise,it is a method that combine qualitative research and quantitative. The issuer payment mode and analysts’subjective experience level has so great influence that the rating results are generally high.The purpose of the article is using the financial data to rate all of real estate industry companies base on the uniform analysis method and standard These financial data are compiled uniformly according to the accounting standards in China. Then Study the changes of its credit rating.This article selects financial data from 2007 to 2012 of 139 listed real estate development companies. Via China’s credit rating Z value discriminant model of listing corporation, which discovered by Zhang Ling. We can obtain the Z value and their corresponding credit rating every year. After the whole and hierarchical analyzing them.We discover the industry’s general credit rating and its big risk. The credit rating fluctuate significantly, but modest.About dynamic analysis, the artical statistics the credit rating transition situation and replace the probability with frequency.Then, it calculates credit rating transition matrix of two consecutive years base on the Markov model.So, the next period’s credit grade distribution can be forecasted on the condition that we know the initial distribution of this period. Error analysis from 2009 to 2012 shows that results perform well in the stable year.This prediction method provides basis for the government to forecast policy effect Finally it explores the stationary distribution of real estate industry listing corporation’s credit rating in next few years. These results may offer a reference for government to balance macro-control efforts and to make medium and long term industrial policy.