The Impact Of Demographic Transition On The Real Estate Market

As the pillar industry of domestic economy, the real estate plays an important role to the economic development. Since 1998, when China promulgated the policy of real estate market reform, it developed quite quickly. However, the real estate price around the country have increased rapidly and fluctuated wildly in recent years, all of which frustrated the people's hopes of living and working in peace and contentment. At the same time, Chinese population structure has been changing considerably, and population aging trend is escalating. However, the nature of the real estate that serving for people decided it must be affected by demographic structure. As a result, under the situation of population aging trend escalating, the real estate market is facing new challenges.In order to clarify the relationship between the recent house price fluctuation and demographic transition, the method of theory model and empirical analysis were employed in this paper. First, this paper looked back with the developing process of the real estate market and demographic transition. And then qualitatively analyzed how the population age structure changes affects the real estate market supply and the real estate market demand, include the residential demand and investment demand. Based on this, this article established a partial equilibrium model of the real estate market. As demographic transition causes the size of vacant house increased and the ability of urban housing supply enhanced, we used the model to research its impact on the real estate market. The result shows that population aging increased housing prices fluctuation range. Based on error correction model and panel data model, we tested the effect of population aging on the housing prices fluctuation using data from the 9 cities of Perl River Delta region. The empirical result agreed well with the theoretical conclusion that population aging would affect the operation of the real estate market, and would exacerbate housing prices fluctuation. Besides, the empirical result also verified that population aging is an important reason for real estate price of Perl River Delta region keep fluctuating acutely.Finally, based on the theoretical analysis and empirical result, combined with the national conditions, the paper proposed the relevant policy recommendations for the stable and healthy operation of the real estate market.