| There is a big strict distinction between Pension industry mode and Retirement pattern. Retirement pattern only explain the elderly and how to spend their old age, such as stay in homes, nursing homes, etc. And Pension industry mode, including three industries, is the sum of the products, services and related industries for specific Retirement pattern. In general, it is consiste of old financial industry, older supplies industry, elderly services and real estate industry of the elderly, in totle four modules.Ningxia as the latest region enter aging society in 2009. The Southern Mountainous Area is one of the concentrated difficult areas in China, is located in the ecotone of Agriculture-animal Husbandry south of Ningxia, where ecological fragility and low level of economic and social development. With the "One Belt and One Road" and develop-the-west strategy, changing the development mode and industrial structure has become an important direction for the future development of this region.This study through literature review, questionnaire survey, grey prediction and GIS analyze condition of elder population in southern mountains areas in Ningxia consist of Yuanzhou, Xiji, Pengyang, Longde, Jingyuan and Haiyuan. Combining with the characteristics of local economic and social development basic layout, pension industry development present situation and domestic and foreign classic case, we put forward suitable for poor areas of four kinds of endowment pattern of industrial development and in order to provide a scientific reference to solve the elder population problems in the study areas. As Haixing zone an case, we put forward a pension industry layout proposed project. In this project, we contend that through pension industry to stimulate economic and social development and create new ways for industry of poverty alleviation.Through this study, the following preliminary conclusions have been acquired:(1) Based on the analysis of elderly population and pension industry development present situation in the southern mountain area in Ningxia, we got six aspects problems such as poor overall foundation, the low level of development, the industrial mode single, uneven development between various counties (districts) and insufficient government input and larger pressure 6 issues in the future.(2) We forecast condition of elderly population growth in the next 10 years by the grey forecasting method. And take three different programs for small, middle and big pension market. The quantity demanded is:In the short term (to 2015), total demand of the pension market is about Y 20.75-31.13 billion yuan; And in the long term, the potential of pension market demand continues enlargement. Market demand can be increased to Y 101.68～152.52 billion yuan. Combining with survey observation and ArcGIS analytical method, we divide the southern mountain area into two regional market according to the leve of pension market demand.(3) In the next period of time, it is suitable for the modern home endowment industry mode and "happiness home" mode of institutional pension industry in the southern mountain area in Ningxia. It is suitable for the modern home pension mode, community endowment industry mode and institution endowment industry mode in the urban areas. Among them, Community endowment patterns should be layout in the areas of the county seat of two types, central town and focus on developing areas; Institution endowment is the layout in two kinds of counties (area), suburban and layout priority areas, as well as the region is in better condition to explore park endowment patterns, especially Haixing zone.(4) As Haixing zone an example, we use the SWOT analysis and summarizes the main problems in Haixing zone. We considered that the important substances are old real estate industry, elderly services, elderly supplies industry, elderly financial industry and urban construction in the southern mountain area in Ningxia. And to this condision, we got some specific measures.(5) We got a series measures which are scientific plans, investments, financing, pattern diversity, government support, key construction, talent support and make full use of policies and external cooperation to support the persion industry development in the southern mountain area in Ningxia. |
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