| The deepening of the aging population’s degree, and the extension of life expectancy, result in the increasing of the elderly population. The diversity of chronic diseases and the physiological characteristics of the older age groups make the risk of disability stronger among the old, and it also brings the huge potential long-term care needs. The shrinking family size and the increasing labor force participation rates of the women have a huge impact to the traditional nursing model, coupled with the long-term costs and the scarcity of nursing resources, obviously, it is inefficient that the individual or the family to bear it entirely. As one of the most serious aging population areas, Nanjing is imperative to set up the long-term care insurance, and while Nanjing is also one of the developed regions, has the advantage of nursing resources and facilities, which provide favorable conditions for the long-term care insurance.Firstly, this paper takes the Germany and Japan for example to describe the long-term care insurance system, and then designs the financing mechanisms and payment mechanisms of the long-term care insurance system for Nanjing. Next, selects the appropriate macro variable to establish the simulation model of the long-term care needs, and calculates the total cost of the care insurance during 2015 to 2030 in Nanjing, and then based on the balance principle, it calculates the monthly payment which the statutory crowd should pay and the insurance rates in the same periods.The specific results as follows: ①the long-term care insurance in Nanjing should be part of the social insurances which fully embody the government, enterprises and individual’s responsibilities, and it implements the PAYG system and provides long-term care services for all 65 years and older in Nanjing.② through accounting, the nursing cost of home care/community care model are 632 yuan/month,1,264 yuan/month,2,528 yuan/month and the cost of institutional care were 1400 yuan/month,2,472 yuan/month,3,880 yuan/month by the nursing grade, the total cost of care needs will be 1.858 billion yuan in 2015 and will reach 5.275 billion yuan in 2030.③ based on the principle of PAYG system, the paper estimates that the statutory population should contribute 32.70 yuan/month in 2015, and the premium will increase to 104.41 yuan/month in 2030, it also calculates that the care insurance rate will increase from 0.85% in 2015 to 1.30% in 2030.Finally, according to the empirical results, this paper puts forward three suggestions for setting up the long-term care insurance in Nanjing:(1) on the system, perfect the relevant laws and regulations and strengthen the government’s responsibility. (2) on the balance of the care insurance fund, broaden financing channel and set premium rate scientifically and reasonably. (3) on the nursing service supply, develop nursing staff extensively and improve the quality of care service. |
