The Forecast And Early Warning Research And Concrete Evidence Analysis About Production Of Pig In Hunan Province

Hunan Province has always been a main district for raising pigs. The yields of pigs remain top of the entire nation. In recent years, with the new policy carried out by our government, farmers’enthusiasm of raising pigs is increasing dramatically. The overall situation of pig production is good. However, since the pig-raising industry opened to the public, the pig production fluctuated sharply, and had a serious impact on producer and customer’s benefits. So. it is significant to enhance the knowledge of volatility rule of pig production in Hunan, to effectively forecast and alert about the pig production, and to promote the stable development of pig production in Hunan.The aim of this thesis is to try to master the periodic trends of pig market, under the actual development of pig production in Hunan. By studying the forecast and warning model, guiding the producers to avoid market risk, rationally arranging production process, we offers healthy development and strong support to the pig industry. The article uses HP filter method via Eviews software to measure the period of fluctuations of pig production in Hunan. Using grey system model in Matlab software forecasts the yields of pig production in Hunan. Using the time difference relevance analysis in SPSS software ensure the ahead, synchronous and lag quality of warning indicator, together with production forecast to conduct the early warning analysis. The conclusions of this thesis are as follows:1.The pig production of Hunan Province is constantly growing for a long time, but for a short period, there are some obvious fluctuations periodically. The pig production is growing on a large scale. The pig production expansion period is longer than contraction period during1996to2012, the expansion and contraction rate is1.67, which shows the long expansion period of Hunan pig production, from recovering to booming, and also explaining the slow recovery speed once the pig production starts to decline. Second, it shows the contraction period won’t be long if the pig production begins to decline.2.Setting the price for pork, piglet and fodder is the leading indicators to influence the pig production.3.The pig production in2013has no alerts. However, in2014the production is in moderate alert. Some of the relevant indicators of pig production show signs of declining, but still haven’t cause major impact on national economy structure. Some relevant methods can be used to bring pig production back to normal.