Study On Evaluation, Forecast And Early Warning Of Economics Disparity In Urban And Rural Of Xinjiang

Since reform and opening up, China's urban and rural economic and social development have made noteworthy achievements of the world, but urban and rural areas is still a conspicuous contradictions. After 1997, China's urban and rural differences emerged expanding trend. The Six Session of the Sixteenth Central Committee of CPC (the Communist party of China) will be reduced areas differences of urban and rural in the construction of a new hard target, and promote more harmonious urban and rural areas. If the urban-rural gap is too wide, especially in the economic gap, affecting not only rapid and healthy development of national economy, but also affects social and political stability.The gap between urban and rural areas, usually in the more economically backward areas performs larger. A large number of facts also show that urban and rural social and economic development in Xinjiang not only exists in the larger gap, and that gap still continues to accelerate the trend of expansion. If this goes, it will not only affect Xinjiang comprehensive strategic goal of the implementation of building a well-off society, but also is bound to affect the overall situation of the long-term social stability. Xinjiang is a multi-ethnic populated provinces, but the vast majority of ethnic minorities living in the vast rural areas, and properly handle the differences between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang, especially residents difference between income and consumption, it has a special political, economic and social significance .Based on the above background, this paper includes the following content:First, this paper introduces a broad research background, ideas, innovation and methods such as, summed up the difference between the rural and urban economy at home and abroad study on theory and practice, and its economic research methodology. Second, study Xinjiang of the economic disparities in urban and rural areas, the urban-rural gap in Xinjiang changes in the economy compared with the national, and bringing the impact growing differences between urban and rural areas, and analysis the economic differences between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang factor through econometric model and methods to identify Xinjiang for differences between the urban and rural economy based on the previous research results. Third, through the prediction model and methods for Xinjiang's economic differences changing trends forecasts and analysis and use economic early warning theory, differences between urban and rural economic and early warning, and. analysis alert situation of urban and rural differences, economic differences between urban and rural areas of Xinjiang forecast and determine the state of alert situation. Finaly, alert policy under control in the results of the study on the basis of differences in the rural and urban economy of XinjiangThis paper purpose of the study is to the health of urban and rural economy in Xinjiang, sustained, coordinated development a targeted, workable policy recommendations for Xinjiang's economic and social development of harmony to provide a scientific basis.