Economic Early Warning Model Based On Statistical Analysis

Macroeconomic system is extremely complex, from the history of economicdevelopment, the economic system run fluctuations teach effect on macroeconomicsustained and healthy development, and it can cause huge social losses and instability.Since the reform and opening up China’s economic construction has madeunprecedented achievements, but the economic operation has its own inherent volatilitycycle, showing of certain economic operating rules and characteristics. We can use suchrules and characteristics to predict the direction of economic development and road andgive warning before the arrival of the peaks and valleys of the economic operation, thatis, economic early warning system. We give correct regulation of the operation of theeconomy, appropriate measures and recommendations through macroeconomicregulation and control lever. Use this way to make the economy always in a stable andcoordinated development and to reduce unnecessary losses. Lay an important andnecessary foundation for the establishment of harmony, happiness, well-off society.In this paper, I take a city macroeconomic as the research object and select the areacharacteristics economic indicators which have an impact on economic growth Thispaper mainly apply multivariate statistical analysis of stepwise regression analysis, fastclustering analysis，discriminant analysis and divide macroeconomic performance stateinto five class mode of economic operation of the different characteristics, that theeconomy is too cold, the economy is cold, the economy is too hot, the economy is hot,the economy running is in good condition. And then establish the discriminant functionand the appropriate model for predicting the value of the economic indicators of thecharacteristics in the next2-3months according to the characteristics of economicindicators. Finally, I use discriminant function to discriminate the running state of theeconomy in the next2-3months, which can be used to determine the trend of economicoperation, to meet the need for the economic operation to take control measures, toachieve the purpose of the economic warning.