Methods Based On The Combination Of The Commercialreal Estate Project Risk Assessment

In recent years, with the speeding up of economic development and urbanization in our country, the people’s growing demand for business. On the other hand, due to the effect of macro policy, residential property is experiencing the transition from the initial profits to small profit. Domestic traditional residential real estate developers are added to the commercial real estate. However, due to the current commercial real estate related theoretical research is weak, and many from developers from residential to commercial land development, because of the different development mode, in the process of transition to the operating characteristics of commercial real estate development to conduct a comprehensive understanding, this is largely increases the uncertainty factors of commercial real estate developers and risk.Risk factors for the development of commercial real estate projects currently exists, the paper established a scientific index system of risk, intended to seek a risk assessment model or methodology. And plus the use of the real level of risk in commercial real estate projects to make the determination, so that developers can take timely and targeted avoidance measures to strengthen the various risks. More detailed objectives are:risk identification process, qualitative and quantitative binding by AHP and entropy analysis method combined weighting method to study the establishment of commercial real estate projects developed during the risk assessment system, summed up the major risk factors exist in the real estate project development, and commercial real estate in accordance with the characteristics of open, timely and appropriate adjustments to determine the risk factors for its existence.In modern times, the index weighting standard assessment tools weigh subjective weighting method and objective weighting of these two methods, however, are two of the capital’s not really an accurate reflection of the fact that investors Statistics subjective and objective information and investment. From a logical point of view in order to empower these two methods flexibly integrated use to make trade-offs reflect the proportion of the assessed both objective and subjective information but also to reflect the information, based on the analysis of various types of empowerment approach as a starting point, the use of subjective weigh the gravity assessment Act (AHP) and objective way to assess the proportion of trade-offs (entropy method) which is to assess the commercial land project risk assessment index system for weighting criteria, and then through a combination of commercial land weighting method to reach the final standard project risk assessment index system values, the proportion of the value of trade-offs. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is related to the regulation of the decision-making through the use of cutting criteria, programs, goals and other levels, the implementation of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of the dec is ion-making based on this premise. The main feature of this method is based on in-depth analysis of the impact conditions of complex decision problems, nature, and it’s based on intrinsic relevance, etc., using less amount of information to consider in the process of decision-making operation tends mathematical thinking technology, to promote diversification criteria, target specific, or non-structural characteristics of complex decision problems brought a more convenient way to think. In the implementation of a number of digital information, the use of subjective judgment of the way, through the assessment of goals, sub-goals, the index criteria determine the relative importance to implement, build discriminant matrix to calculate the proportion of the value of trade-offs, thus contributing to the qualitative and quantitative combined with each other to achieve The results tend to be more reliable and more practical effect. The concept of entropy is used to evaluate things will occur uncertainty. If the characteristics of the specific entropy Ej is reduced, which means a reduction in her situation and the degree of variation of the characteristic value may occur, increasing the amount of information brought, it also increases the proportion of tradeoffs. Conversely, it is also a corresponding reduction in the proportion of trade-offsTherefore, AHP is a very good way of subjective assignment, however entropy method is a good objective assignment methods. In the course of practical application, in the original stage of the analysis, because there are fewer sample data, the relationship between the data has not fully formed, so it should be based on subjective empowerment; With the update, and the accumulation of sample data, can use standard between the internal laws to establish a standard measure, this time, the objective should be to empower as a basis. But it is difficult to grasp the obtained sample data have not fully enough, so reasonable empowerment approach must take into account the subjectivity and objectivity while both methods. This study considers a comprehensive AHP and entropy method, a combination of indicators assignment to make the evaluation more reasonable.Of this study have important theoretical and practical significance. In theory sense, first of all, the current real estate development risk identification theory, are also just use past experience static, isolated, qualitative figuring. This Chinese commercial real estate development, the risk factors will vary from project to project. Therefore, the establishment of a risk evaluation when the commercial real estate development is very necessary. Second, the current risk assessment methods in terms of more, such as dynamic and static sensitivity analysis breakeven analysis and principal component analysis, probabilistic analysis, gray evaluation method, AHP, entropy analysis, etc., evaluation process combines the qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are in constant innovation, but as long as the applicability of the method has its advantages and disadvantages difficult to avoid. Entropy and AHP analysis in this paper can be combined with its integrated use them to verify operability and practicability of the model for the future development of commercial real estate project risk evaluation and research has played a significant guidance and reference. In terms of its practical significance, first of all, in risk identification commercial real estate projects, but also for a variety of factors were investigated, there are other factors, it may lead to risks there are also differences. Use of effective methods to determine the factors for the development of the project keen to seize the key factors for the development of effective measures to avoid the risk of the project.Secondly, the use of combination weighting method, a risk assessment model, feasibility analysis and risk re-development of commercial real estate projects to assess these have a very practical application value.In this paper, XJ International Commercial Plaza development project for the analysis of the case, the weight of scientific indicators and feasibility of the actual test. As of this writing, mainly based on commercial real estate development and risk management and a series of related theory, summarized on the basis of previous studies to explore the main factors affecting the risk of commercial real estate development, the establishment of the domestic commercial real estate development process of risk assessment standard system, while establishing relevant assessment model of this system as the basis for the integrated use of combination weighting method, then XJ International Commercial Plaza, empirical analysis of the risk assessment, to establish a comprehensive risk levels throughout the project. Then for the results of this paper were highly overview summary; consider the limitations of the study in this paper, the research work in the future, and made a more in-depth outlook...