The Study Of BOT Concessionair Selection Modes Based On Demand Risk

As a new form to raise overseas investments of infrastructure projects,Build-Operate-Transfer form has been widely and internationally used. Thereinto, selection ofthe concessionaire decides whether this project can be operated successfully. From the viewof current domestic condition, due to a lack of deep understanding on operating characteristicsof the specific models, the government chooses partners blindly. Selection of concessionairemainly depends on subjective judgments and experience, which hasn’t consider the applicableenvironments of different models. This situation severely limited the development space ofpublic projects, which may lead to renegotiates and project failures.Against this background, this research aims at extracting the market situation and keyelements and pattern rules through using international advanced experience and analyzingtypical cases domestic and overseas, summarizing the commonly used concessionaire modelsof BOT projects and the applicable conditions of different models, putting forward reasonableassumptions under hypothesis. Decision-making model of BOT project should be designedcombine the current situation and future requirements of the infrastructure development inChina. Mathematical analysis of several commonly used models should be done to verify therationality of model selection.On the basis of summarizing the research status at home and abroad, firstly, this paperadopted multiple case study method, indicating the key elements affecting BOT projects andthe application scope of three concessionaire selection models and the relationships amongdifferent regions and different trades and different models. Aiming at maximizing socialwelfare, this article set up fuzzy decision-making theory model. I have analyzed theeffectivity of models under demand risk comprehensively for the first time and have in-depthstudy the practical significances corresponding to the potential information through functionderivations. This paper has used particle swarm optimization algorithm and numericalsimulation to contrast the model optimal solutions under different demand risks and verify themodel conclusion and summarize wheather these modes can meet the social welfaremaximization and choose the most effective concessionaire, in addition, add the modelconclusion.