Early-warned Research On Xinjiang’s GDP Growth

In order to monitor Xinjiang’s macro-economical growth comprehensively and dynamically, this paperanalyses present situation of Xinjiang macro-economy and the connection between industries. And then itanalyses the inner connection and outer connection to explore the connection among Xinjiang, China andother provinces. On the basis of predicting Xinjiang’s GDP, this paper advices the government to buildXinjiang macro-economy early-warning system.This paper consists of seven chapters. The first chapter mainly introduces the background, meaning,present situation both at home and abroad, methods, technical route and innovation. The second chaptermainly analyses concepts and theories which the paper involved. The third chapter introduced the generalsituation of natural resources and macro-economy. And then it analyses main macro-economical indicatorsperiodically. The forth chapter mainly researches the connection among Xinjiang’s GDP, primary industry,tertiary industry, added value of industry, total import and export, total investment in fixed assets and totalretail sales of consumer goods. The fifth chapter mainly researches the connection between Xinjiang’s GDPand main national indicators. And then it adopts three stages’ theory includes regional association,provincial association and indicators’ association. The sixth chapter mainly analysed the connectionbetween Xinjiang’s GDP and international indicators. The seventh chapter is the part of buildingmacro-economical early-warning system. The system consists of gathering information subsystem,information evaluation subsystem, predicting information subsystem, information warning subsystem andhandling crisis subsystem. The eighth chapter mainly introduces conclusions and inadequacies of thispaper.Based on the research, we can draw some conclusions. Firstly, the result indicates that there existsco-integration relationship that is a long-term and steady relationship among Xinjiang’s GDP Xinjiang’smain macro-economy indicators. Secondly, there exists co-integration relationship that is a long-term andsteady relationship among Xinjiang’s GDP, the national GDP, the national money supply, the nationalinvestment in fixed assets, the national total retail sales of consumer goods and the total import and export..At last, the most associated provinces of Xinjiang are Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong,Jiangsu and Hebei. And the most associated indicators between Xinjiang’s GDP and other provinces are thesecondary industry and total import and export.