China’s Medium-Term Economic Growth Path Under The Consider Of Energy-Save And Emission-Reduction

Why developed countries are keen to contain China by emission restrictions? Will China not be able to maintain the stable economic growth if taking energy-save and emission-reduction into account? In this paper, on the basis of data simulation I designed9paths for China’s economic growth by dynamic direction distance function, and found out the relatively optimal one from the9paths. The results showed:(1) Overall, the relatively optimal path can bring "Win-Win" development between energy-save, emission-reduction and economic. But different regions have different conclusions,17provinces or cities represented by Hebei can achieve a "win-win", when the other7provinces or cities represented by Beijing maybe have some losses.(2)6%economic growth rate should be kept in the relatively optimal path, and progressive control of carbon emissions, so that the emissions reach its highest peak in2030and no further increase.(3)"Carbon price" system should be developed, and gradually improve the "carbon price" in the implementation process of the relatively optimal path, ensure proper investment for emissions reduction, ensure the price of carbon emissions relative to GDP located between100-700Y/ton, in order the task of reducing emissions realize smoothly. In the process of selecting the relatively optimal path I also verified the accuracy of the Porter hypothesis, showed only in specific circumstances the Porter hypothesis will be established. In addition, from the view of methodological, I derived some basic properties of directional distance function and dynamic directional distance function, fixed the misleading of the traditional literature on the frontier, and gave a general idea to simplify the multi-dimensional problems which is used to deal with bad outputs.