Land Use Change And Simulation In Shenzhen Based On FLUS Model

Land resources play a vital role in human development and provide the key products and ecosystem services needed for human production and life.They are irreplaceable,fixed,and scarce.Studying the mechanism of urban land use change and simulating the distribution pattern of land use in the future have important practical significance for urban land policy and land planning;it will help to improve the economical and intensive use of urban land and achieve resource-saving and environment-friendly sustainable development.This paper takes Shenzhen as an example,qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the land use change characteristics and evolution rules of Shenzhen from 2000 to 2015 from the aspects of quantity and spatial structure using transfer matrix,utilization intensity and spatial center of gravity transfer model.In reference to the research of Cao Shuwen et al[82],a brief driving force analysis was performed on the selected 14 factors based on the Auto-Logistic regression method.Based on this,Markov model and FLUS model are comprehensively used to test the effectiveness of simulation results.Realize the simulation and comparative analysis of land use patterns under the three modes of "Natural Development Scenario","Cultivated Land Protection Scenario" and "Ecological Protection Scenario" of Shenzhen City in 2020.The main findings are as follows:(1)Land use in Shenzhen mainly consists of construction land,forest land,and garden land;the overall change from 2000 to 2015 shows a clear distributional imbalance.On the one hand,the area of cultivated land,gardens,grassland and water areas has declined to varying degrees,with the largest decrease in cultivated land and the second in gardens,of which the cultivated land has a slight increase after 2010.On the other hand,the construction land is always in a high-speed expansion with an average annual growth rate of 1,934.47 hm2.It is characterized by an extension type and the inter-regional structure is unreasonable.The spatial distribution shows obvious differentiation characteristics,which is in line with the "three-axis and two-belt" urban development plan,and the multi-city driving effect of cities is obvious.Compared with other cities,the rationality of the land use structure in Shenzhen is poor,the industrial land structure is out of balance,the extensive use is obvious,the efficiency of conservation is intensive,and sustainable development is facing challenges.(2)The ROC values of 7 land use types under Auto-Logistic regression were all greater than 0.75,and the selected factors could explain the changes of land use in Shenzhen.The 2015 land use pattern distribution based on FLUS model simulation has a high accuracy evaluation.The Kappa coefficient value is 0.914,which is much larger than 0.75,and the prediction effect is good.It shows that it is feasible to use the model and parameter settings to predict the distribution of future land use patterns in Shenzhen.(3)Land use patterns in three different scenarios do have regulatory effects on land changes,but they cannot achieve optimal distribution of land use structures.Must consider the target demand,the policy plan and the natural social factor comprehensive consideration,can realize the land use rational distribution,the sustainable utilization goal.This paper proposes an optimized sustainable development scenario through comprehensive consideration of different scenarios.The simulation finds that both in terms of quantity and spatial distribution are most close to the 2020 land use planning and have strong applicability.Therefore,using the FLUS model to simulate and optimize land use structure and achieve sustainable development of land resources is an effective method.