Analysis Of Risk Of The Commercial Real Estate Pre-planning

With the sustainable improvement of China’s national economicdevelopment and the improvement of socialism market economy, the real estateindustry plays an important role in China’s economy. Under the guidance of thenational regulation and the policy of expand internal consumption demands, withinvestment of the residential real estate decrease, the development of commercialreal estate increase rapidly. However, in addition to the property value appreciatefast and the operation of commercial can obtain huge profits, as the compositeindustry with the real estate, trade and investment， it has a complicatedoperating procedure and long development cycle. Meanwhile the commercial realestate will face lots of risk which could make severe damage. In order to makemore profits and avoid the project failed, the real estate developers should payattention to preliminary planning procedure which can make a packageprogramme for the success of the project. For the increase the chance of gainingprofits， the real estate developers should identify the risks and objectiveprecisely assess the risks.The real estate development only has30years of history in China. Althoughthe commercial real estate investment is growing fast, but the lack of experienceand knowledge of commercial real estate is the big obstacle to the developers.This article identifies the risk of China’s commercial real estate and makes amathematic model to make the risk into digital for providing the basis for thedecision maker.By evaluation the risk of “haihang international center” project to verify thearticle’s scientific and practical. The result is accordant with the practicalsituation. This article could provide a mathematic model and the method ofevaluate risks for real estate developers.