The Process Of Urbanization Of Rural Migrant Workers Can Predict Trends

Issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers are taken as the focus of work by Governments at all levels, but the core of these issues lies in the transfer of rural labors, which not only determines the success of China’s rural reform, but also about matters about the ability of China to achieve the goal for a comprehensive well-off society strategic. As for the importance of the transfer of the transfer of labor, this subject has important theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, the author explores the issue of rural labor transfer from three aspects:the key factors of China’s labor force, forecasting methods and suggestions, and attempt to do a quantitative prediction with new technical tools and new methods of operation.The main contents of this paper:First, the author did a lot of review and summarize after a lot of research on the relevant literature, including the research of the background and significance, and the current researches, and the elaborate research purposes, content and methods.Second, the author gave an overview of the relevant theories, including the aggregation and diffusion theory, ternary structure theory, the central city development theory, the theory of generalized small towns, individual decision cost-benefit analysis theory, the expected return of labor employment theory, and all the has lay a better theoretical foundation for this study.Third, through the research of demographic factors, economic factors, geographical factors, the author analyzed the key influencing factors of rural labor transfer, and summed up relevant prediction methods, such as optimization models, support vector machines, Markov chains.Fourth, the author predicted the trend of rural labor transfer, established exponential mathematical model, and fit the data with the help of SPSS statistical software. All these work has predicted the average wage for non-agricultural labor force and agricultural labor force from2012to2050.Fifth, the author came up with some rural labor policies which would contribute to the transfer of rural labors. The author has bettered the policies from the aspects to build public service system that covers urban migrant workers, to promote the urbanization of rural workers and to restructure the financial expenditure on people’s livelihood, to support migrant workers to do business in their hometown in order to build a benign mechanism for rural labor transfer...